Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 6 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Ahlstrom, Robby

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
21.7% K%
Range
0.1% to 20.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-06
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
51
Arsenal5 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-06
ERA preseason3.19
ERA current pace6.48
ERA rolling p504.46
Observed weight39%
ERA
2.73 3.55 4.46 5.38 6.20
FIP
2.31 3.28 4.36 5.44 6.41
K%
11.7% 14.7% 18.2% 21.6% 24.7%
BB%
3.6% 5.0% 6.4% 7.9% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-06
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
34
ERA6.48
7
BB%7.2%
74
K%20.4%
37
xwOBA allowed0.315
47 -34 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.6%
63
Fastball velo94.4
50
Hard-hit allowed30.2%
95
Whiff%23.8%
58
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-06
Changeup Stuff+108
91
Fastball Stuff+99
29
Mithrandir Stuff+103
63
Sinker Stuff+107
90
Slider Stuff+106
81
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ahlstrom, Robby · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.315 2026-08-26: 0.3022026-08-27: 0.3102026-08-28: 0.3102026-08-29: 0.3102026-08-30: 0.3102026-08-31: 0.3102026-09-01: 0.3042026-09-02: 0.3042026-09-03: 0.3142026-09-04: 0.3142026-09-05: 0.3152026-09-06: 0.315 2026-08-26 2026-09-06 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ahlstrom, Robby · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ahlstrom, Robby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.2%Slider: 25.4%Sinker: 21.5%Changeup: 15.8%Curveball: 4.1% FF33% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 33%SL 25%SI 22%CH 16%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ahlstrom, Robby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphSlider: 25% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphSinker: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.3 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.6 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 81.0 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.9% 88 99 limited sample
SL 26.5% 65 106 limited sample
CH 18.0% 44 108 limited sample
SI 15.9% 39 107 limited sample
CB 3.7% 9 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.48
K% Δ-0.013
Sample34.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.3----
Batters Faced128----
K%21.7%0.1% to 20.8%+/- 10.3%
BB%7.8%0.1% to 8.7%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%25.7%5.5% to 30.7%+/- 12.6%
HR/91.290.00 to 1.48+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.2840.011 to 0.320+/- 0.155
Barrel% Allowed7.3%0.1% to 9.4%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.000.00 to 4.79+/- 2.40
FIP4.070.73 to 6.38+/- 2.82
WHIP1.1180.035 to 1.298+/- 0.631
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%0.3%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%0.3%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%