Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Miller, Mason

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
38.1% K%
Range
32.3% to 48.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
90
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
91
Arsenal4 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason2.87
ERA current pace1.26
ERA rolling p502.08
Observed weight49%
ERA
0.60 1.30 2.08 2.87 3.57
FIP
0.62 1.15 1.74 2.32 2.85
K%
38.3% 40.5% 43.0% 45.4% 47.6%
BB%
7.0% 8.2% 9.6% 10.9% 12.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.85
98
ERA1.26
99
BB%8.7%
53 +28 vs proj
K%46.8%
100
xwOBA allowed0.189
100
Barrel allowed6.1%
72 +31 vs proj
Fastball velo101.5
100
Hard-hit allowed30.3%
94
Whiff%43.0%
100
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+107
87
Mithrandir Stuff+106
88
Slider Stuff+105
76
Changeup Stuff+88
2
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Miller, Mason · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.189 2026-08-25: 0.1842026-08-26: 0.1842026-08-27: 0.1882026-08-28: 0.1882026-08-29: 0.1882026-08-30: 0.1882026-08-31: 0.1902026-09-01: 0.1902026-09-02: 0.1902026-09-03: 0.1902026-09-04: 0.1902026-09-05: 0.189 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Miller, Mason · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 43%43%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 50.2%4-Seam Fastball: 47.4%Changeup: 2.3%Sinker: 0.1% SL50% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 50%FF 47%CH 2%SI 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 50% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 88.0 mphSL88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 101.5 mphFF101 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 96.5 mphCH96 mphSinker: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 9″ drop, 100.9 mphSI101 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 53.2% 299 105 qualified
FB 44.1% 248 107 qualified
CH 2.5% 14 88 limited sample
SI 0.2% 1 121 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Slider 46%, Changeup 2%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.96
K% Δ+0.087
Sample60.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.0----
Batters Faced158----
K%38.1%32.3% to 48.7%+/- 8.2%
BB%11.1%6.0% to 14.9%+/- 4.5%
Whiff%37.9%32.4% to 44.3%+/- 6.0%
HR/91.000.48 to 1.81+/- 0.66
xwOBA Against0.2530.165 to 0.329+/- 0.082
Barrel% Allowed7.9%3.7% to 12.8%+/- 4.6%
ERA3.211.15 to 5.35+/- 2.10
FIP2.431.40 to 4.55+/- 1.58
WHIP1.0240.676 to 1.437+/- 0.380
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

298 career BF

xwOBA0.239
K%38.1%
BB%12.2%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

372 career BF

xwOBA0.221
K%39.0%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.3%