Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Slider 46%, Changeup 2%.
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026
Miller, Mason
High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss
Team SD
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 2.88 |
| ERA current pace | 0.76 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.25 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
ERA
0.77
1.47
2.25
3.03
3.73
FIP
0.79
1.32
1.91
2.49
3.02
K%
36.0%
38.9%
42.1%
45.3%
48.1%
BB%
7.2%
8.8%
10.6%
12.3%
13.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.9%
24
Barrel allowed2.5%
97
+49 vs proj
Fastball velo101.2
100
Hard-hit allowed20.0%
100
K%48.5%
100
Whiff%48.2%
100
xwOBA allowed0.163
100
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+106
80
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
54%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 54.0% | 207 | 105 | qualified |
| FB | 42.8% | 164 | 106 | limited sample |
| CH | 2.9% | 11 | 92 | limited sample |
| SI | 0.3% | 1 | 122 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.45 |
| K% Δ | +0.104 |
| Sample | 26.0 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 40.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 159 | -- | -- |
| K% | 38.1% | 32.3% to 48.7% | +/- 8.2% |
| BB% | 11.1% | 6.0% to 14.9% | +/- 4.5% |
| Whiff% | 37.9% | 32.4% to 44.3% | +/- 6.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.00 | 0.48 to 1.81 | +/- 0.66 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.253 | 0.165 to 0.329 | +/- 0.082 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.9% | 3.7% to 12.8% | +/- 4.6% |
| ERA | 3.21 | 1.15 to 5.35 | +/- 2.10 |
| FIP | 2.43 | 1.40 to 4.55 | +/- 1.58 |
| WHIP | 1.024 | 0.676 to 1.437 | +/- 0.380 |
vs LHH
298 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 38.1% |
| BB% | 12.2% |
| Barrel | 9.2% |
vs RHH
372 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.221 |
| K% | 39.0% |
| BB% | 8.2% |
| Barrel | 7.3% |