Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026
Hoppe, Alex
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 28
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
35
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.87 |
| ERA current pace | 6.38 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.67 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
ERA
2.56
3.56
4.67
5.78
6.79
FIP
1.32
2.31
3.42
4.52
5.51
K%
11.2%
14.5%
18.2%
21.9%
25.2%
BB%
4.1%
5.6%
7.2%
8.8%
10.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
22
ERA6.38
8
BB%9.7%
35
K%23.0%
55
+19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.307
56
-33 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.7%
98
+41 vs proj
Fastball velo97.7
92
Hard-hit allowed41.3%
33
Whiff%25.5%
71
+26 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Fastball Stuff+106
77
Mithrandir Stuff+103
63
Sinker Stuff+102
48
Slider Stuff+99
32
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
47%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 44.7% | 119 | 99 | limited sample |
| FB | 38.3% | 102 | 106 | limited sample |
| SI | 15.8% | 42 | 102 | limited sample |
| CH | 1.1% | 3 | 112 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.79 |
| K% Δ | +0.025 |
| Sample | 25.0 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 31.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 136 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.5% | 0.1% to 20.1% | +/- 10.0% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 0.1% to 8.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| Whiff% | 21.7% | 2.1% to 26.5% | +/- 12.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.19 | 0.00 to 1.46 | +/- 0.73 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.269 | 0.017 to 0.309 | +/- 0.146 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.3% | 0.1% to 9.6% | +/- 4.7% |
| ERA | 4.59 | 0.00 to 5.63 | +/- 2.82 |
| FIP | 3.73 | 0.44 to 6.03 | +/- 2.79 |
| WHIP | 1.231 | 0.132 to 1.335 | +/- 0.602 |
vs LHH
0 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.005 |
| K% | 0.3% |
| BB% | 0.2% |
| Barrel | 0.1% |
vs RHH
2 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.005 |
| K% | 0.3% |
| BB% | 0.1% |
| Barrel | 0.1% |