Lee, Chase
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.25 |
| ERA current pace | 8.10 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.56 |
| Observed weight | 8% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 39.3% | 22 | 108 | limited sample |
| SL | 35.7% | 20 | 91 | limited sample |
| FB | 19.6% | 11 | 87 | limited sample |
| CH | 5.4% | 3 | 113 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 34.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 140 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.4% | 17.1% to 33.2% | +/- 8.0% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 2.4% to 10.8% | +/- 4.2% |
| Whiff% | 20.2% | 13.4% to 26.2% | +/- 6.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.53 | 0.34 to 2.25 | +/- 0.96 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.309 | 0.251 to 0.384 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 9.5% | 4.9% to 15.8% | +/- 5.5% |
| ERA | 4.16 | 1.86 to 6.18 | +/- 2.16 |
| FIP | 4.02 | 2.40 to 5.20 | +/- 1.40 |
| WHIP | 1.216 | 0.782 to 1.578 | +/- 0.398 |
69 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.272 |
| K% | 20.2% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 9.7% |
93 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 21.6% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 12.0% |