Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Burns, Chase

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
30.3% K%
Range
27.0% to 41.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced reliever Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
79
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
72
Arsenal4 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason4.18
ERA current pace2.77
ERA rolling p503.16
Observed weight72%
ERA
1.70 2.39 3.16 3.93 4.62
FIP
2.31 2.74 3.22 3.69 4.12
K%
27.4% 28.6% 29.9% 31.3% 32.5%
BB%
6.9% 7.5% 8.2% 8.9% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.18
76
ERA2.77
84
BB%8.2%
59
K%29.0%
90
xwOBA allowed0.279
85
Barrel allowed8.7%
31 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo97.7
92
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
43
Whiff%28.8%
89
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Fastball Stuff+112
99
Mithrandir Stuff+108
96
Slider Stuff+102
50
Changeup Stuff+98
24
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Burns, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.279 2026-08-22: 0.2722026-08-23: 0.2722026-08-24: 0.2722026-08-25: 0.2772026-08-26: 0.2772026-08-27: 0.2772026-08-28: 0.2772026-08-29: 0.2772026-08-30: 0.2772026-08-31: 0.2792026-09-01: 0.2792026-09-02: 0.279 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Burns, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burns, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 55.9%Slider: 38.3%Changeup: 5.2%Sinker: 0.4%Curveball: 0.2% FF56% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 56%SL 38%CH 5%SI 0%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burns, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 56% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 97.7 mphFF98 mphSlider: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 90.2 mphSL90 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.1 mphCH90 mphSinker: 0% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.2 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.5 mphCU84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 55.9% 914 112 qualified
SL 37.8% 618 102 qualified
CH 5.7% 93 98 limited sample
SI 0.6% 9 111 limited sample
CB 0.1% 1 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 58%, Slider 34%, Changeup 6%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.15
K% Δ-0.014
Sample149.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.8----
Batters Faced283----
K%30.3%27.0% to 41.1%+/- 7.1%
BB%9.1%5.3% to 11.1%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%28.9%24.8% to 35.1%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.230.69 to 1.76+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.2930.252 to 0.336+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.7%4.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.862.99 to 6.77+/- 1.89
FIP3.121.89 to 4.23+/- 1.17
WHIP1.2851.017 to 1.636+/- 0.309
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

101 career BF

xwOBA0.254
K%30.2%
BB%7.8%
Barrel7.1%
vs RHH

93 career BF

xwOBA0.236
K%30.5%
BB%5.4%
Barrel6.2%