Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 58%, Slider 34%, Changeup 6%.
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026
Burns, Chase
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team CIN
Archetype Balanced reliever
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.18 |
| ERA current pace | 1.96 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.99 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
ERA
1.65
2.28
2.99
3.69
4.33
FIP
2.53
2.92
3.36
3.79
4.18
K%
26.9%
28.7%
30.7%
32.6%
34.4%
BB%
6.1%
7.0%
7.9%
8.8%
9.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.6%
67
+25 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.1%
24
-27 vs proj
Fastball velo98.1
94
Hard-hit allowed39.9%
47
K%29.1%
88
Whiff%30.5%
90
xwOBA allowed0.271
84
+15 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+109
95
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
57%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 57.1% | 565 | 111 | qualified |
| SL | 36.5% | 361 | 104 | qualified |
| CH | 6.4% | 63 | 100 | limited sample |
| CB | 0.1% | 1 | 96 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.90 |
| K% Δ | -0.012 |
| Sample | 70.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 65.9 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 284 | -- | -- |
| K% | 30.3% | 27.0% to 41.1% | +/- 7.1% |
| BB% | 9.1% | 5.3% to 11.1% | +/- 2.9% |
| Whiff% | 28.9% | 24.8% to 35.1% | +/- 5.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.23 | 0.69 to 1.76 | +/- 0.53 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.293 | 0.252 to 0.336 | +/- 0.042 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.7% | 4.8% to 10.4% | +/- 2.8% |
| ERA | 3.86 | 2.99 to 6.77 | +/- 1.89 |
| FIP | 3.12 | 1.89 to 4.23 | +/- 1.17 |
| WHIP | 1.285 | 1.017 to 1.635 | +/- 0.309 |
vs LHH
101 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.254 |
| K% | 30.2% |
| BB% | 7.8% |
| Barrel | 7.1% |
vs RHH
93 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.236 |
| K% | 30.5% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |