Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Burns, Chase

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
30.3% K%
Range
27.0% to 41.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced reliever Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
77
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal4 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.18
ERA current pace2.54
ERA rolling p503.12
Observed weight65%
ERA
1.72 2.38 3.12 3.85 4.51
FIP
2.53 2.94 3.39 3.84 4.25
K%
27.0% 28.4% 30.0% 31.6% 33.1%
BB%
7.0% 7.7% 8.5% 9.3% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
77
ERA2.54
87
BB%8.6%
50
K%28.7%
88
xwOBA allowed0.277
85 +15 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.1%
19 -31 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed39.0%
50
Whiff%28.8%
88
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+110
95
Mithrandir Stuff+109
96
Slider Stuff+104
67
Changeup Stuff+99
25
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Burns, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.277 2026-07-06: 0.2722026-07-07: 0.2722026-07-08: 0.2722026-07-09: 0.2722026-07-10: 0.2772026-07-11: 0.2772026-07-12: 0.2772026-07-13: 0.2772026-07-14: 0.2772026-07-15: 0.2772026-07-16: 0.2772026-07-17: 0.277 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Burns, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burns, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.2%Slider: 36.9%Changeup: 5.6%Curveball: 0.3% FF57% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 57%SL 37%CH 6%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burns, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 57% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 97.8 mphFF98 mphSlider: 37% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 90.6 mphSL91 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.2 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.5 mphCU84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 57.5% 627 110 qualified
SL 35.9% 391 104 qualified
CH 6.5% 71 99 limited sample
CB 0.1% 1 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 58%, Slider 34%, Changeup 6%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.32
K% Δ-0.016
Sample107.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.5----
Batters Faced282----
K%30.3%27.0% to 41.1%+/- 7.1%
BB%9.1%5.3% to 11.1%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%28.9%24.8% to 35.1%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.230.69 to 1.76+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.2930.252 to 0.336+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.7%4.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.862.99 to 6.77+/- 1.89
FIP3.121.89 to 4.23+/- 1.17
WHIP1.2851.017 to 1.636+/- 0.309
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

101 career BF

xwOBA0.254
K%30.2%
BB%7.8%
Barrel7.1%
vs RHH

93 career BF

xwOBA0.236
K%30.5%
BB%5.4%
Barrel6.2%