Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 6 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Bachman, Sam

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.6% K%
Range
13.3% to 27.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-06
43
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal4 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-06
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace4.14
ERA rolling p504.05
Observed weight47%
ERA
2.41 3.19 4.05 4.91 5.68
FIP
3.07 3.61 4.21 4.80 5.34
K%
17.6% 19.5% 21.7% 23.9% 25.9%
BB%
8.6% 9.9% 11.3% 12.7% 14.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-06
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
31
ERA4.14
47
BB%13.3%
11 -32 vs proj
K%23.2%
59
xwOBA allowed0.299
67
Barrel allowed7.1%
55 -20 vs proj
Fastball velo98.7
98
Hard-hit allowed31.7%
91
Whiff%31.6%
96 +32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-06
Slider Stuff+103
64
Changeup Stuff+109
94
Mithrandir Stuff+102
49
Sinker Stuff+95
11
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bachman, Sam · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.299 2026-08-26: 0.2992026-08-27: 0.2992026-08-28: 0.2992026-08-29: 0.2992026-08-30: 0.2992026-08-31: 0.2992026-09-01: 0.2992026-09-02: 0.2992026-09-03: 0.2992026-09-04: 0.2992026-09-05: 0.2992026-09-06: 0.299 2026-08-26 2026-09-06 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bachman, Sam · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachman, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 50.2%Sinker: 31.1%Changeup: 15.1%4-Seam Fastball: 3.0%Sweeper: 0.5% SL50% · 89 mphprimary pitch SL 50%SI 31%CH 15%FF 3%ST 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachman, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 50% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.5 mphSL89 mphSinker: 31% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 98.7 mphSI99 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 91.8 mphCH92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 3% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 98.5 mphFF98 mphSweeper: 1% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 86.4 mphST86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 54.2% 260 103 qualified
SI 30.8% 148 95 limited sample
CH 13.3% 64 109 limited sample
FB 1.7% 8 87 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 55%, Sinker 34%, Changeup 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.17
K% Δ-0.004
Sample46.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.0----
Batters Faced144----
K%23.6%13.3% to 27.6%+/- 7.1%
BB%9.6%5.1% to 13.8%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%24.7%18.4% to 30.9%+/- 6.2%
HR/90.970.00 to 1.44+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3080.235 to 0.354+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed5.9%0.1% to 8.4%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.972.23 to 6.84+/- 2.31
FIP3.802.06 to 5.26+/- 1.60
WHIP1.3571.016 to 1.688+/- 0.336
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

71 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%14.7%
BB%10.7%
Barrel1.0%
vs RHH

114 career BF

xwOBA0.245
K%15.4%
BB%7.1%
Barrel1.0%