Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Chandler, Bubba

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
18.9% to 31.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal6 metrics
78
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace4.30
ERA rolling p504.24
Observed weight71%
ERA
2.85 3.51 4.24 4.97 5.63
FIP
3.10 3.53 4.01 4.49 4.93
K%
19.5% 20.6% 21.8% 23.0% 24.1%
BB%
8.7% 9.4% 10.3% 11.1% 11.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
41
ERA4.30
43
BB%12.0%
19 -62 vs proj
K%20.4%
37 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.313
50
Barrel allowed5.6%
79 +45 vs proj
Fastball velo98.3
96
Hard-hit allowed38.2%
53
Whiff%19.9%
26 -46 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Changeup Stuff+107
87
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+107
91
Slider Stuff+106
85
Curveball Stuff+106
94
Sinker Stuff+99
29
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Chandler, Bubba · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.313 2026-08-25: 0.3122026-08-26: 0.3122026-08-27: 0.3132026-08-28: 0.3132026-08-29: 0.3132026-08-30: 0.3132026-08-31: 0.3132026-09-01: 0.3132026-09-02: 0.3132026-09-03: 0.3132026-09-04: 0.3132026-09-05: 0.313 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Chandler, Bubba · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Chandler, Bubba · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.2%Slider: 20.8%Changeup: 15.0%Sinker: 7.5%Sweeper: 4.5%Curveball: 4.1% FF48% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SL 21%CH 15%SI 7%ST 4%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Chandler, Bubba · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 98.4 mphFF98 mphSlider: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 91.0 mphSL91 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.6 mphCH92 mphSinker: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.9 mphSI98 mphSweeper: 4% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.7 mphST88 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 86.7 mphCU87 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.9 mphPO95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 51.1% 794 107 qualified
SL 21.9% 340 106 qualified
CH 15.6% 242 107 qualified
SI 6.9% 107 99 limited sample
CB 4.6% 72 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 54%, Changeup 23%, Slider 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.36
K% Δ-0.024
Sample135.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.3----
Batters Faced264----
K%22.9%18.9% to 31.0%+/- 6.0%
BB%6.7%2.2% to 8.7%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%25.7%21.0% to 31.6%+/- 5.3%
HR/90.970.39 to 1.58+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3200.257 to 0.352+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.4%4.3% to 13.1%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.852.37 to 6.03+/- 1.83
FIP3.612.16 to 4.54+/- 1.19
WHIP1.2390.679 to 1.469+/- 0.395
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

61 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%20.2%
BB%3.0%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

63 career BF

xwOBA0.244
K%20.9%
BB%2.5%
Barrel8.5%