Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Johnson, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.8% K%
Range
15.9% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
24
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal4 metrics
37
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.33
ERA current pace5.47
ERA rolling p505.03
Observed weight61%
ERA
3.32 4.13 5.03 5.92 6.73
FIP
4.09 4.46 4.86 5.27 5.64
K%
16.5% 18.0% 19.6% 21.3% 22.8%
BB%
7.4% 8.3% 9.3% 10.3% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
39
ERA5.47
18
BB%10.8%
28 -32 vs proj
K%17.7%
18 -29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.350
15 -47 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.8%
17 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo92.4
20
Hard-hit allowed36.7%
63
Whiff%22.5%
48
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Cutter Stuff+103
66
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Sinker Stuff+96
14
Slider Stuff+99
31
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Johnson, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.350 2026-08-25: 0.3542026-08-26: 0.3542026-08-27: 0.3542026-08-28: 0.3542026-08-29: 0.3542026-08-30: 0.3562026-08-31: 0.3562026-09-01: 0.3562026-09-02: 0.3562026-09-03: 0.3562026-09-04: 0.3562026-09-05: 0.350 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Johnson, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 36.7%Split-Finger: 22.2%Sweeper: 20.4%Sinker: 20.2%Slider: 0.3%4-Seam Fastball: 0.2% FC37% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 37%FS 22%ST 20%SI 20%SL 0%FF 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 37% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.7 mphFC90 mphSplit-Finger: 22% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.7 mphFS85 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 80.4 mphST80 mphSinker: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.4 mphSI92 mphSlider: 0% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.3 mphSL84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.5 mphFF94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 53.7% 331 103 qualified
SL 28.7% 177 99 limited sample
SI 17.5% 108 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 44%, Sinker 22%, Sweeper 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.07
K% Δ-0.041
Sample86.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.9----
Batters Faced300----
K%21.8%15.9% to 30.1%+/- 7.1%
BB%8.1%3.6% to 10.6%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%22.6%17.7% to 28.0%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.220.91 to 2.61+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3040.217 to 0.333+/- 0.058
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.1% to 10.8%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.372.39 to 7.10+/- 2.35
FIP4.122.86 to 5.00+/- 1.07
WHIP1.3781.123 to 1.742+/- 0.309
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

36 career BF

xwOBA0.213
K%16.5%
BB%5.3%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

56 career BF

xwOBA0.195
K%18.2%
BB%4.1%
Barrel6.6%