Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

McGreevy, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.3% K%
Range
11.3% to 21.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
56
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal7 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.40
ERA current pace3.01
ERA rolling p503.52
Observed weight64%
ERA
2.30 2.87 3.52 4.16 4.74
FIP
3.58 3.88 4.22 4.55 4.86
K%
14.5% 15.6% 16.8% 18.1% 19.2%
BB%
4.2% 4.8% 5.4% 6.1% 6.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.10
82
ERA3.01
76
BB%5.5%
92
K%17.0%
14
xwOBA allowed0.353
14
Barrel allowed9.3%
27
Fastball velo91.2
7
Hard-hit allowed39.6%
45
Whiff%17.4%
9
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+101
41
Fastball Stuff+106
79
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Sinker Stuff+100
30
Curveball Stuff+102
60
Cutter Stuff+102
56
Slider Stuff+100
38
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McGreevy, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.353 2026-07-07: 0.3602026-07-08: 0.3602026-07-09: 0.3602026-07-10: 0.3532026-07-11: 0.3532026-07-12: 0.3532026-07-13: 0.3532026-07-14: 0.3532026-07-15: 0.3532026-07-16: 0.3532026-07-17: 0.3532026-07-18: 0.353 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McGreevy, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McGreevy, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 25.6%Changeup: 20.3%Sinker: 16.2%Cutter: 11.7%Curveball: 11.3%Sweeper: 10.5% FF26% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 26%CH 20%SI 16%FC 12%CU 11%ST 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McGreevy, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.6 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.7 mphCH87 mphSinker: 16% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.5 mphSI90 mphCutter: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.8 mphFC87 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 78.0 mphCU78 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.4 mphST81 mphSlider: 4% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.4 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 25.3% 332 106 qualified
CH 20.4% 268 101 qualified
SI 16.9% 222 100 qualified
SL 14.5% 191 100 limited sample
FC 11.6% 152 102 limited sample
CB 11.3% 149 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.301 vs 0.261 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Sinker 23%, Sweeper 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.82
K% Δ+0.007
Sample104.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.3----
Batters Faced290----
K%16.3%11.3% to 21.2%+/- 4.9%
BB%5.1%2.9% to 7.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%17.5%13.9% to 22.7%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.490.57 to 1.97+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3430.282 to 0.375+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.3% to 11.2%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.832.72 to 6.06+/- 1.67
FIP4.593.07 to 4.81+/- 0.87
WHIP1.2730.932 to 1.498+/- 0.283
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

233 career BF

xwOBA0.301
K%13.1%
BB%4.5%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

272 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%14.7%
BB%3.2%
Barrel6.9%