Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

McGreevy, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.3% K%
Range
11.3% to 21.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.40
ERA current pace2.98
ERA rolling p503.67
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.49 3.05 3.67 4.29 4.85
FIP
3.58 3.88 4.20 4.53 4.82
K%
14.8% 16.2% 17.7% 19.2% 20.6%
BB%
4.1% 4.8% 5.6% 6.4% 7.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.9%
87
Barrel allowed10.9%
15 -22 vs proj
Fastball velo90.9
7
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
45
K%18.8%
23
Whiff%18.9%
18
xwOBA allowed0.368
10
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
46
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McGreevy, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3722026-05-19: 0.3722026-05-21: 0.3722026-05-23: 0.3742026-05-24: 0.3742026-05-25: 0.3742026-05-26: 0.3742026-05-28: 0.3682026-05-29: 0.3682026-05-30: 0.3682026-05-31: 0.3682026-06-01: 0.368 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McGreevy, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McGreevy, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 24.3%Changeup: 20.5%Sinker: 16.4%Cutter: 11.7%Curveball: 11.6%Sweeper: 11.2% MIX FF 24%CH 20%SI 16%FC 12%CU 12%ST 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McGreevy, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.7FFCH: HB -0.7, IVB 2.9CHSI: HB 0.6, IVB 2.3SIFC: HB 0.2, IVB 2.6FCCU: HB 0.8, IVB 4.9CUST: HB -1.1, IVB 3.6STSL: HB 0.3, IVB 3.5SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 24.0% 231 107 qualified
CH 20.7% 199 100 limited sample
SI 16.8% 162 101 limited sample
SL 15.4% 148 98 limited sample
FC 11.6% 112 99 limited sample
CB 11.5% 111 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.301 vs 0.261 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Sinker 23%, Sweeper 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.85
K% Δ+0.025
Sample64.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.4----
Batters Faced286----
K%16.3%11.3% to 21.2%+/- 4.9%
BB%5.1%2.9% to 7.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%17.5%13.9% to 22.7%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.490.57 to 1.97+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3430.282 to 0.375+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.3% to 11.2%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.832.72 to 6.06+/- 1.67
FIP4.593.07 to 4.81+/- 0.87
WHIP1.2720.932 to 1.498+/- 0.283
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

233 career BF

xwOBA0.301
K%13.1%
BB%4.5%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

272 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%14.7%
BB%3.2%
Barrel6.9%