Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Smith-Shawver, Aj

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.3% K%
Range
16.9% to 28.0%
Live Δ
--
Team ATL Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
31
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal5 metrics
31
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.83
ERA current pace7.13
ERA rolling p504.69
Observed weight26%
ERA
3.34 3.98 4.69 5.40 6.04
FIP
2.80 3.42 4.10 4.79 5.40
K%
16.7% 18.7% 21.0% 23.3% 25.3%
BB%
6.0% 7.2% 8.5% 9.9% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Curveball Stuff+98
7
Fastball Stuff+105
67
Mithrandir Stuff+103
54
Sinker Stuff+98
25
Slider Stuff+89
3
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Smith-Shawver, Aj · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 44%44%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 38%38%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith-Shawver, Aj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.9%Split-Finger: 36.6%Curveball: 7.5%Sinker: 7.5%Slider: 7.5% FF41% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 41%FS 37%CU 8%SI 8%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith-Shawver, Aj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 37% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 82.5 mphFS83 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 75.0 mphCU75 mphSinker: 8% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mphSlider: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.7 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 59.5% 91 105 limited sample
SL 14.4% 22 89 limited sample
SI 13.7% 21 98 limited sample
CB 12.4% 19 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Split-Finger 34%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.2----
Batters Faced293----
K%21.3%16.9% to 28.0%+/- 5.6%
BB%7.8%4.7% to 10.7%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%23.5%19.3% to 29.0%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.410.63 to 1.98+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3120.261 to 0.328+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.0% to 12.9%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.311.77 to 5.22+/- 1.72
FIP3.652.36 to 5.70+/- 1.67
WHIP1.2310.962 to 1.514+/- 0.276
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

219 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%19.5%
BB%7.2%
Barrel9.8%
vs RHH

199 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%19.4%
BB%6.0%
Barrel9.4%