Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Urena, Walbert

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.0% K%
Range
6.0% to 26.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 22 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
69
Arsenal5 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason2.70
ERA current pace2.85
ERA rolling p502.81
Observed weight70%
ERA
0.98 1.84 2.81 3.77 4.63
FIP
1.92 2.70 3.56 4.43 5.21
K%
18.9% 20.5% 22.3% 24.1% 25.8%
BB%
8.6% 9.4% 10.4% 11.3% 12.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
57
ERA2.85
83
BB%12.4%
17 -49 vs proj
K%22.9%
56 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.286
80
Barrel allowed4.9%
87 +35 vs proj
Fastball velo97.9
93
Hard-hit allowed35.5%
71
Whiff%25.9%
74 +38 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Changeup Stuff+107
85
Fastball Stuff+99
30
Mithrandir Stuff+103
53
Sinker Stuff+100
36
Slider Stuff+100
38
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ureña, Walbert · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.286 2026-08-25: 0.2832026-08-26: 0.2832026-08-27: 0.2882026-08-28: 0.2882026-08-29: 0.2882026-08-30: 0.2882026-08-31: 0.2882026-09-01: 0.2862026-09-02: 0.2862026-09-03: 0.2862026-09-04: 0.2862026-09-05: 0.286 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ureña, Walbert · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ureña, Walbert · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 33.0%Sinker: 31.7%4-Seam Fastball: 20.7%Sweeper: 14.5%Pitch Out: 0.0% CH33% · 91 mphprimary pitch CH 33%SI 32%FF 21%ST 14%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ureña, Walbert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 33% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.8 mphCH91 mphSinker: 32% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 97.9 mphSI98 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.9 mphFF98 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.9 mphST87 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 84.7 mphPO85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 35.3% 483 107 qualified
SI 31.4% 429 100 qualified
FB 18.7% 256 99 qualified
SL 14.6% 199 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 39%, Changeup 32%, Slider 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.78
K% Δ+0.039
Sample127.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.2----
Batters Faced126----
K%19.0%6.0% to 26.2%+/- 10.1%
BB%7.8%0.1% to 8.5%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%20.8%3.7% to 27.6%+/- 12.0%
HR/91.080.00 to 1.45+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.2840.001 to 0.295+/- 0.147
Barrel% Allowed7.3%0.1% to 9.7%+/- 4.8%
ERA3.630.00 to 4.82+/- 2.41
FIP3.460.47 to 4.80+/- 2.17
WHIP1.0650.022 to 1.237+/- 0.608
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%6.6%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%6.9%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%