Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Adams, Travis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.5% K%
Range
14.9% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
34
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
46
Arsenal6 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.29
ERA current pace6.20
ERA rolling p504.90
Observed weight32%
ERA
3.56 4.19 4.90 5.60 6.23
FIP
3.38 3.83 4.33 4.83 5.27
K%
18.2% 20.6% 23.3% 26.1% 28.5%
BB%
6.8% 8.0% 9.3% 10.6% 11.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.54
14
ERA6.20
10
BB%11.7%
19 -27 vs proj
K%28.8%
88 +52 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.325
39
Barrel allowed9.1%
28
Fastball velo94.2
47
Hard-hit allowed28.8%
96
Whiff%26.4%
75 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+99
26
Cutter Stuff+101
44
Fastball Stuff+103
56
Mithrandir Stuff+101
38
Sinker Stuff+113
100
Slider Stuff+97
19
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Adams, Travis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.325 2026-07-07: 0.3352026-07-08: 0.3352026-07-09: 0.3352026-07-10: 0.3302026-07-11: 0.3302026-07-12: 0.3252026-07-13: 0.3252026-07-14: 0.3252026-07-15: 0.3252026-07-16: 0.3252026-07-17: 0.3252026-07-18: 0.325 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Adams, Travis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 58%58%Hard hit allowed: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Adams, Travis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.5%Changeup: 27.3%Cutter: 21.4%Slider: 19.5%Sinker: 4.3% FF28% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 28%CH 27%FC 21%SL 20%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Adams, Travis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.4 mphCH86 mphCutter: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.1 mphFC91 mphSlider: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.2 mphSL86 mphSinker: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.2 mphSI94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 27.5% 52 103 limited sample
CH 27.5% 52 99 limited sample
FC 24.3% 46 101 limited sample
SL 15.3% 29 97 limited sample
SI 5.3% 10 113 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.309 vs 0.288 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Slider 20%, Cutter 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.47
K% Δ+0.083
Sample24.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.5----
Batters Faced310----
K%20.5%14.9% to 29.2%+/- 7.1%
BB%8.9%5.9% to 12.2%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%23.2%19.3% to 28.7%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.340.74 to 2.10+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3360.289 to 0.370+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.0% to 13.4%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.733.45 to 6.99+/- 1.77
FIP4.353.02 to 5.53+/- 1.26
WHIP1.3521.104 to 1.703+/- 0.300
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

91 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%16.7%
BB%8.9%
Barrel10.4%
vs RHH

68 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%18.1%
BB%6.6%
Barrel9.7%