Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Warren, Will

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
18.9% to 30.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal6 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
46
ERA4.43
40
BB%7.6%
69
K%23.1%
58
xwOBA allowed0.326
35
Barrel allowed7.6%
48
Fastball velo93.5
33
Hard-hit allowed45.4%
9
Whiff%21.1%
36
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+108
94
Sinker Stuff+104
67
Slider Stuff+112
99
Changeup Stuff+103
58
Curveball Stuff+102
44
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Warren, Will · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.326 2026-08-22: 0.3282026-08-23: 0.3282026-08-24: 0.3282026-08-25: 0.3322026-08-26: 0.3322026-08-27: 0.3302026-08-28: 0.3302026-08-29: 0.3302026-08-30: 0.3302026-08-31: 0.3262026-09-01: 0.3262026-09-02: 0.326 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Warren, Will · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Will · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.0%Sinker: 25.7%Sweeper: 19.7%Changeup: 12.2%Curveball: 5.4% FF37% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 37%SI 26%ST 20%CH 12%CU 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Will · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.7 mphFF94 mphSinker: 26% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.0 mphST84 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.1 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 81.2 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.2% 615 107 qualified
SI 24.5% 394 104 qualified
SL 20.7% 334 112 qualified
CH 12.1% 195 103 limited sample
CB 4.5% 72 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.317 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Sinker 21%, Sweeper 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample142.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.1----
Batters Faced325----
K%22.8%18.9% to 30.8%+/- 5.9%
BB%8.2%6.0% to 11.2%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%22.0%19.6% to 28.3%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.460.86 to 2.16+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3260.279 to 0.359+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.9%5.8% to 13.7%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.312.98 to 6.34+/- 1.68
FIP4.082.98 to 5.17+/- 1.10
WHIP1.3221.137 to 1.680+/- 0.271
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

500 career BF

xwOBA0.317
K%19.4%
BB%9.7%
Barrel10.9%
vs RHH

436 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%24.3%
BB%6.1%
Barrel10.4%