Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026
Samaniego, Tyler
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team BOS
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 2.81 |
| ERA current pace | 1.04 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.33 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
ERA
0.48
1.36
2.33
3.31
4.19
FIP
1.06
2.19
3.45
4.71
5.84
K%
10.6%
14.7%
19.3%
23.8%
27.9%
BB%
4.1%
6.0%
8.2%
10.3%
12.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.9%
64
+32 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.9%
83
+36 vs proj
Fastball velo93.2
29
Hard-hit allowed36.1%
71
K%21.3%
43
Whiff%19.1%
19
xwOBA allowed0.345
23
-52 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+101
42
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
41%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 45.0% | 116 | 100 | limited sample |
| FB | 22.9% | 59 | 99 | limited sample |
| SL | 19.0% | 49 | 99 | limited sample |
| FC | 7.0% | 18 | 105 | limited sample |
| CH | 6.2% | 16 | 100 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -3.07 |
| K% Δ | +0.005 |
| Sample | 20.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 31.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 136 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.8% | 1.0% to 24.4% | +/- 11.7% |
| BB% | 10.2% | 0.1% to 11.0% | +/- 5.4% |
| Whiff% | 20.4% | 1.4% to 27.4% | +/- 13.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.38 | 0.00 to 1.59 | +/- 0.80 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.285 | 0.001 to 0.338 | +/- 0.169 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.9% | 0.1% to 9.6% | +/- 4.7% |
| ERA | 4.11 | 0.00 to 4.77 | +/- 2.38 |
| FIP | 4.08 | 0.00 to 6.15 | +/- 3.07 |
| WHIP | 1.286 | 0.026 to 1.429 | +/- 0.702 |
vs LHH
3 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.004 |
| K% | 4.8% |
| BB% | 2.3% |
| Barrel | 0.1% |
vs RHH
5 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.004 |
| K% | 4.4% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 0.1% |