Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 7 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Samaniego, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
1.0% to 24.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-07
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal6 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-07
ERA preseason2.82
ERA current pace2.66
ERA rolling p502.77
Observed weight29%
ERA
0.94 1.81 2.77 3.73 4.60
FIP
1.07 2.19 3.43 4.67 5.79
K%
10.9% 14.9% 19.3% 23.8% 27.8%
BB%
4.3% 6.1% 8.3% 10.4% 12.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-07
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
39
ERA2.66
88
BB%8.2%
59 +24 vs proj
K%21.4%
44
xwOBA allowed0.335
28 -52 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.5%
91 +48 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
28
Hard-hit allowed35.8%
69
Whiff%19.1%
20
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-07
Changeup Stuff+100
33
Cutter Stuff+105
80
Fastball Stuff+100
34
Mithrandir Stuff+102
46
Sinker Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+99
29
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Samaniego, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.335 2026-08-27: 0.3312026-08-28: 0.3312026-08-29: 0.3312026-08-30: 0.3312026-08-31: 0.3312026-09-01: 0.3312026-09-02: 0.3352026-09-03: 0.3352026-09-04: 0.3352026-09-05: 0.3352026-09-06: 0.3352026-09-07: 0.335 2026-08-27 2026-09-07 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Samaniego, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Samaniego, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 38.9%4-Seam Fastball: 26.9%Sweeper: 18.0%Cutter: 9.4%Changeup: 6.9% SI39% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 39%FF 27%ST 18%FC 9%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Samaniego, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 39% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mph4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.5 mphFF94 mphSweeper: 18% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 82.1 mphST82 mphCutter: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.8 mphFC89 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.5 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 45.0% 116 100 limited sample
FB 22.9% 59 100 limited sample
SL 19.0% 49 99 limited sample
FC 7.0% 18 105 limited sample
CH 6.2% 16 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.45
K% Δ+0.006
Sample22.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.7----
Batters Faced132----
K%20.8%1.0% to 24.4%+/- 11.7%
BB%10.2%0.1% to 11.0%+/- 5.4%
Whiff%20.9%1.4% to 27.4%+/- 13.0%
HR/91.380.00 to 1.59+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.2850.001 to 0.338+/- 0.169
Barrel% Allowed7.9%0.1% to 9.6%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.110.00 to 4.77+/- 2.38
FIP4.080.00 to 6.15+/- 3.07
WHIP1.2880.026 to 1.429+/- 0.702
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3 career BF

xwOBA0.003
K%4.8%
BB%2.3%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

5 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%4.4%
BB%2.5%
Barrel0.1%