Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Schultz, Noah

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.9% K%
Range
4.6% to 24.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
22
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
28
Arsenal6 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.63
ERA current pace5.60
ERA rolling p504.60
Observed weight49%
ERA
2.87 3.69 4.60 5.51 6.33
FIP
3.26 3.88 4.57 5.26 5.88
K%
14.2% 16.7% 19.5% 22.3% 24.9%
BB%
8.9% 10.2% 11.6% 13.1% 14.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
36
ERA5.60
16
BB%12.5%
15
K%20.3%
34 -26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.371
7 -72 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.5%
8 -34 vs proj
Fastball velo95.2
63
Hard-hit allowed39.9%
43
Whiff%20.0%
25 -36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir Stuff+103
61
Changeup Stuff+104
63
Cutter Stuff+102
53
Fastball Stuff+102
43
Sinker Stuff+104
69
Slider Stuff+100
36
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Schultz, Noah · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.371 2026-07-07: 0.3572026-07-08: 0.3572026-07-09: 0.3722026-07-10: 0.3722026-07-11: 0.3722026-07-12: 0.3722026-07-13: 0.3722026-07-14: 0.3712026-07-15: 0.3712026-07-16: 0.3712026-07-17: 0.3712026-07-18: 0.371 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Schultz, Noah · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Schultz, Noah · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 24.5%4-Seam Fastball: 23.6%Sweeper: 21.8%Cutter: 20.0%Changeup: 10.1% SI25% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 25%FF 24%ST 22%FC 20%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Schultz, Noah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 25% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.3 mphFF95 mphSweeper: 22% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.6 mphST83 mphCutter: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.6 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.1 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 25.3% 187 104 limited sample
FB 24.0% 177 102 limited sample
SL 23.3% 172 100 limited sample
FC 18.4% 136 102 limited sample
CH 9.1% 67 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 36%, Cutter 17%, 4-Seam Fastball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.18
K% Δ-0.037
Sample51.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.1----
Batters Faced291----
K%23.9%4.6% to 24.6%+/- 10.0%
BB%11.0%6.1% to 15.5%+/- 4.7%
Whiff%24.5%10.5% to 30.7%+/- 10.1%
HR/91.390.05 to 1.41+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.2840.043 to 0.272+/- 0.115
Barrel% Allowed8.1%0.6% to 8.3%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.480.53 to 5.42+/- 2.45
FIP4.021.63 to 5.34+/- 1.86
WHIP1.4560.717 to 1.784+/- 0.534
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2 career BF

xwOBA0.003
K%5.5%
BB%6.4%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

9 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%5.0%
BB%7.3%
Barrel0.1%