Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 36%, Cutter 17%, 4-Seam Fastball 15%.
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026
Schultz, Noah
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team CWS
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 23
Status IL-15
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.63 |
| ERA current pace | 5.82 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.53 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
ERA
2.78
3.61
4.53
5.46
6.29
FIP
2.95
3.58
4.28
4.98
5.61
K%
13.0%
15.9%
19.1%
22.4%
25.2%
BB%
8.6%
10.1%
11.8%
13.4%
14.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%13.1%
10
Barrel allowed11.1%
14
-30 vs proj
Fastball velo95.3
67
Hard-hit allowed38.9%
52
K%19.6%
29
-30 vs proj
Whiff%20.1%
24
-38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.360
11
-65 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
26%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 26.2% | 171 | 105 | limited sample |
| FB | 24.8% | 162 | 100 | limited sample |
| SL | 21.8% | 142 | 98 | limited sample |
| FC | 18.4% | 120 | 101 | limited sample |
| CH | 8.7% | 57 | 108 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.40 |
| K% Δ | -0.043 |
| Sample | 38.0 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 61.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 287 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.0% | 4.6% to 24.6% | +/- 10.0% |
| BB% | 11.0% | 6.1% to 15.5% | +/- 4.7% |
| Whiff% | 24.5% | 10.5% to 30.7% | +/- 10.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.40 | 0.05 to 1.41 | +/- 0.68 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.284 | 0.043 to 0.272 | +/- 0.115 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.1% | 0.6% to 8.3% | +/- 3.8% |
| ERA | 4.47 | 0.52 to 5.42 | +/- 2.45 |
| FIP | 4.02 | 1.63 to 5.34 | +/- 1.86 |
| WHIP | 1.456 | 0.717 to 1.784 | +/- 0.534 |
vs LHH
2 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.003 |
| K% | 5.5% |
| BB% | 6.4% |
| Barrel | 0.1% |
vs RHH
9 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.004 |
| K% | 5.0% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 0.1% |