Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Gastelum, Luis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.1% K%
Range
3.0% to 23.0%
Live Δ
--
Team STL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.76
ERA current pace6.75
ERA rolling p503.99
Observed weight8%
ERA
1.34 2.60 3.99 5.39 6.65
FIP
2.37 3.30 4.33 5.37 6.30
K%
9.9% 14.3% 19.2% 24.1% 28.5%
BB%
2.5% 5.1% 8.0% 10.8% 13.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Insufficient sample

Percentile strips appear after the current-season sample clears the threshold.

Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher.

Stuff+ pending

No current Stuff+ row is available for this pitcher in the latest daily scoring artifact. The profile keeps this block visible so missing coverage is explicit rather than silent.

Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gastelum, Luis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 38%38%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 60%60%Hard hit allowed: 25%25% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types.

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gastelum, Luis · 2025 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 38.1%Sinker: 38.1%4-Seam Fastball: 14.3%Slider: 9.5% CH38% · 82 mphprimary pitch CH 38%SI 38%FF 14%SL 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gastelum, Luis · 2025 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 38% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 82.5 mphCH82 mphSinker: 38% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 93.5 mphSI93 mph4-Seam Fastball: 14% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.5 mphFF94 mphSlider: 10% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.5 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 38%, Sinker 38%, 4-Seam Fastball 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.9----
Batters Faced132----
K%22.1%3.0% to 23.0%+/- 10.0%
BB%9.4%1.3% to 13.1%+/- 5.9%
Whiff%23.0%4.6% to 29.0%+/- 12.2%
HR/91.180.00 to 1.58+/- 0.79
xwOBA Against0.2840.006 to 0.306+/- 0.150
Barrel% Allowed7.5%0.1% to 9.2%+/- 4.5%
ERA4.510.00 to 5.73+/- 2.86
FIP3.980.90 to 5.15+/- 2.12
WHIP1.2080.221 to 1.434+/- 0.606
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%2.8%
BB%3.3%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

6 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%3.0%
BB%2.6%
Barrel0.1%