Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Messick, Parker

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.7% K%
Range
18.6% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
83
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
72
Arsenal7 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace2.56
ERA rolling p502.86
Observed weight78%
ERA
1.74 2.27 2.86 3.45 3.98
FIP
2.59 3.00 3.45 3.91 4.32
K%
23.2% 24.1% 25.1% 26.1% 27.0%
BB%
5.4% 6.0% 6.5% 7.1% 7.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
83
ERA2.56
90
BB%6.8%
81
K%25.6%
74 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.279
86 +34 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.8%
77 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
42
Hard-hit allowed37.0%
60
Whiff%23.1%
54
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Changeup Stuff+100
39
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Sinker Stuff+102
47
Curveball Stuff+104
77
Cutter Stuff+95
7
Slider Stuff+100
32
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Messick, Parker · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.279 2026-10-04: 0.2772026-10-05: 0.2772026-10-06: 0.2772026-10-07: 0.2772026-10-08: 0.2772026-10-09: 0.2782026-10-10: 0.2782026-10-11: 0.2782026-10-12: 0.2782026-10-13: 0.2782026-10-14: 0.2792026-10-15: 0.279 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Messick, Parker · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Messick, Parker · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.6%Changeup: 23.6%Sinker: 15.2%Curveball: 8.2%Slider: 6.6%Cutter: 4.6% FF42% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 42%CH 24%SI 15%CU 8%SL 7%FC 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Messick, Parker · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 24% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSinker: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.9 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 79.1 mphCU79 mphSlider: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.9 mphSL87 mphCutter: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 39.9% 808 105 qualified
CH 23.6% 478 100 qualified
SI 14.3% 290 102 qualified
SL 8.7% 177 100 limited sample
CB 8.3% 169 104 limited sample
FC 5.2% 105 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.214 vs 0.236 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Changeup 23%, Slider 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.21
K% Δ+0.038
Sample206.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.0----
Batters Faced281----
K%21.7%18.6% to 29.2%+/- 5.3%
BB%5.5%2.4% to 8.3%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%24.5%20.7% to 29.4%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.270.77 to 1.83+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3110.258 to 0.342+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.5%3.8% to 9.8%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.772.31 to 5.08+/- 1.38
FIP3.752.75 to 4.89+/- 1.07
WHIP1.3271.085 to 1.636+/- 0.275
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

44 career BF

xwOBA0.214
K%20.8%
BB%3.0%
Barrel4.5%
vs RHH

121 career BF

xwOBA0.236
K%19.7%
BB%3.2%
Barrel5.5%