Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 58%, Sweeper 27%, Curveball 12%.
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026
Fuentes, Didier
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team ATL
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 21
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 7.78 |
| ERA current pace | 2.66 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 6.05 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
ERA
3.45
4.68
6.05
7.41
8.64
FIP
2.56
3.06
3.62
4.17
4.67
K%
17.8%
20.6%
23.7%
26.8%
29.6%
BB%
5.2%
6.3%
7.6%
8.9%
10.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.1%
60
Barrel allowed8.0%
46
Fastball velo97.0
88
Hard-hit allowed36.0%
71
K%29.3%
89
+59 vs proj
Whiff%26.8%
76
+30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.284
75
+33 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+106
78
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
67%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 74.1% | 261 | 105 | qualified |
| SL | 25.9% | 91 | 102 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -3.77 |
| K% Δ | +0.095 |
| Sample | 31.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 62.4 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 316 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.8% | 11.1% to 28.2% | +/- 8.5% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 3.3% to 10.1% | +/- 3.4% |
| Whiff% | 22.6% | 15.1% to 28.3% | +/- 6.6% |
| HR/9 | 1.31 | 0.66 to 2.89 | +/- 1.12 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.322 | 0.237 to 0.354 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.6% | 5.1% to 11.7% | +/- 3.3% |
| ERA | 6.43 | 4.51 to 11.50 | +/- 3.49 |
| FIP | 4.41 | 3.37 to 6.21 | +/- 1.42 |
| WHIP | 1.430 | 1.133 to 1.807 | +/- 0.337 |
vs LHH
31 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 11.0% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 7.6% |
vs RHH
39 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.230 |
| K% | 12.3% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 8.0% |