Gervase, Paul
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.69 |
| ERA current pace | 1.80 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.50 |
| Observed weight | 10% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 50.7% | 36 | 95 | limited sample |
| SL | 35.2% | 25 | 103 | limited sample |
| FC | 12.7% | 9 | 107 | limited sample |
| CH | 1.4% | 1 | 92 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 30.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 135 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.2% | 9.1% to 29.0% | +/- 9.9% |
| BB% | 9.6% | 4.7% to 13.2% | +/- 4.2% |
| Whiff% | 26.0% | 13.8% to 31.1% | +/- 8.6% |
| HR/9 | 1.44 | 0.39 to 2.56 | +/- 1.09 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.291 | 0.135 to 0.366 | +/- 0.115 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.7% | 2.1% to 10.3% | +/- 4.1% |
| ERA | 4.11 | 0.38 to 6.17 | +/- 2.89 |
| FIP | 4.11 | 2.67 to 6.45 | +/- 1.89 |
| WHIP | 1.383 | 0.720 to 1.717 | +/- 0.498 |
17 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.152 |
| K% | 11.7% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |
26 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.142 |
| K% | 12.5% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |