Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Gibson, Cade

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.5% K%
Range
15.4% to 23.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
46
Arsenal5 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.56
ERA current pace5.25
ERA rolling p504.78
Observed weight32%
ERA
3.61 4.17 4.78 5.39 5.95
FIP
3.12 3.54 4.00 4.46 4.88
K%
16.2% 17.8% 19.5% 21.2% 22.8%
BB%
6.0% 7.1% 8.3% 9.5% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.50
18
ERA5.25
20
BB%8.0%
62
K%21.2%
41 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.296
68 +46 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.7%
98 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
18
Hard-hit allowed34.7%
78
Whiff%18.5%
14 -19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+100
32
Curveball Stuff+103
65
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Sinker Stuff+93
9
Slider Stuff+112
98
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gibson, Cade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.296 2026-07-10: 0.2952026-07-11: 0.2952026-07-12: 0.2952026-07-13: 0.2852026-07-14: 0.2962026-07-15: 0.2962026-07-16: 0.2962026-07-17: 0.2962026-07-18: 0.296 2026-07-10 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gibson, Cade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 58%58%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gibson, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 27.9%Sinker: 22.7%Curveball: 22.1%Slider: 16.7%Changeup: 7.6%4-Seam Fastball: 3.0% ST28% · 80 mphprimary pitch ST 28%SI 23%CU 22%SL 17%CH 8%FF 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gibson, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 28% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 80.4 mphST80 mphSinker: 23% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.3 mphSI92 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 79.1 mphCU79 mphSlider: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.9 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.4 mphCH86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 3% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.0 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 44.9% 109 112 limited sample
CB 22.6% 55 103 limited sample
SI 22.6% 55 93 limited sample
CH 7.8% 19 100 limited sample
FB 2.1% 5 88 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Curveball 29%, Sinker 24%, Changeup 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.81
K% Δ+0.028
Sample24.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.7----
Batters Faced291----
K%18.5%15.4% to 23.9%+/- 4.3%
BB%8.8%6.3% to 12.3%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%20.9%17.7% to 26.1%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.270.33 to 1.70+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3440.282 to 0.359+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.4% to 10.2%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.442.39 to 5.50+/- 1.55
FIP4.563.42 to 5.76+/- 1.17
WHIP1.4441.085 to 1.697+/- 0.306
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

113 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%16.2%
BB%8.4%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHH

118 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%16.3%
BB%7.8%
Barrel5.6%