Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Gibson, Cade

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.5% K%
Range
15.4% to 23.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
27
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal6 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason4.56
ERA current pace5.63
ERA rolling p505.03
Observed weight44%
ERA
3.93 4.45 5.03 5.61 6.14
FIP
3.46 3.85 4.29 4.73 5.12
K%
15.5% 16.9% 18.4% 19.9% 21.2%
BB%
7.3% 8.3% 9.4% 10.5% 11.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.63
9
ERA5.63
15
BB%10.6%
31 -21 vs proj
K%18.0%
20
xwOBA allowed0.306
61 +40 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.1%
97 +44 vs proj
Fastball velo92.1
16
Hard-hit allowed36.2%
66
Whiff%18.5%
15 -19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-03
Changeup Stuff+101
43
Curveball Stuff+105
83
Fastball Stuff+94
10
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Sinker Stuff+89
4
Slider Stuff+113
99
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gibson, Cade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.306 2026-08-23: 0.3072026-08-24: 0.3072026-08-25: 0.3022026-08-26: 0.3022026-08-27: 0.3082026-08-28: 0.3082026-08-29: 0.3082026-08-30: 0.3082026-08-31: 0.3082026-09-01: 0.3072026-09-02: 0.3072026-09-03: 0.306 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gibson, Cade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gibson, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 27.0%Curveball: 22.7%Sinker: 22.3%Slider: 16.2%Changeup: 7.7%4-Seam Fastball: 4.1% ST27% · 80 mphprimary pitch ST 27%CU 23%SI 22%SL 16%CH 8%FF 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gibson, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 27% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 80.3 mphST80 mphCurveball: 23% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 79.2 mphCU79 mphSinker: 22% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.2 mphSI92 mphSlider: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.2 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.5 mphCH87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 4% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.9 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 43.4% 171 113 limited sample
CB 22.3% 88 105 limited sample
SI 21.8% 86 89 limited sample
CH 8.4% 33 101 limited sample
FB 4.1% 16 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Curveball 29%, Sinker 24%, Changeup 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.19
K% Δ-0.005
Sample39.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.8----
Batters Faced296----
K%18.5%15.4% to 23.9%+/- 4.3%
BB%8.8%6.3% to 12.3%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%21.0%17.7% to 26.1%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.270.33 to 1.70+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3430.282 to 0.359+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.4% to 10.2%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.442.39 to 5.50+/- 1.55
FIP4.563.42 to 5.76+/- 1.17
WHIP1.4441.085 to 1.697+/- 0.306
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

113 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%16.2%
BB%8.4%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHH

118 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%16.3%
BB%7.8%
Barrel5.6%