Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Morales, Luis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.6% K%
Range
16.9% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-18
3
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
18
Arsenal5 metrics
17
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-18
ERA preseason3.90
ERA current pace13.50
ERA rolling p507.16
Observed weight34%
ERA
5.91 6.50 7.16 7.81 8.40
FIP
5.13 5.58 6.08 6.58 7.03
K%
15.9% 17.9% 20.2% 22.5% 24.5%
BB%
8.7% 9.9% 11.1% 12.3% 13.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP2.27
0
ERA13.50
0
BB%17.1%
1 -46 vs proj
K%16.3%
12 -27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.407
1 -29 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.1%
7 -16 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
86
Hard-hit allowed42.0%
24
Whiff%20.1%
27 -25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-18
Changeup Stuff+78
0
Fastball Stuff+98
22
Mithrandir Stuff+95
12
Sinker Stuff+87
2
Slider Stuff+102
49
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Morales, Luis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.407 2026-09-04: 0.4072026-09-05: 0.4072026-09-06: 0.4072026-09-07: 0.4072026-09-08: 0.4072026-09-09: 0.4072026-09-10: 0.4072026-09-11: 0.4072026-09-12: 0.4072026-09-13: 0.4072026-09-14: 0.4072026-09-18: 0.407 2026-09-04 2026-09-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Morales, Luis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morales, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.9%Slider: 19.6%Sweeper: 13.6%Sinker: 13.0%Changeup: 8.8% FF45% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 45%SL 20%ST 14%SI 13%CH 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morales, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 45% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphSlider: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 80.8 mphST81 mphSinker: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.3 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.2% 117 98 limited sample
SL 29.0% 75 102 limited sample
SI 14.3% 37 87 limited sample
CH 11.6% 30 78 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Sweeper 27%, Changeup 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+9.17
K% Δ-0.044
Sample23.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.5----
Batters Faced281----
K%20.6%16.9% to 29.2%+/- 6.2%
BB%9.2%6.1% to 11.6%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%22.9%18.3% to 27.9%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.350.92 to 2.32+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3320.277 to 0.357+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed9.4%5.2% to 14.7%+/- 4.8%
ERA4.332.34 to 5.69+/- 1.67
FIP4.353.36 to 5.91+/- 1.27
WHIP1.4350.966 to 1.653+/- 0.343
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

101 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%18.2%
BB%8.6%
Barrel11.5%
vs RHH

99 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%19.7%
BB%7.2%
Barrel11.3%