Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Early, Connelly

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
27.2% K%
Range
22.8% to 37.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced reliever Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.53
ERA current pace2.95
ERA rolling p503.22
Observed weight53%
ERA
1.94 2.55 3.22 3.89 4.50
FIP
2.57 3.03 3.55 4.07 4.54
K%
22.0% 23.8% 25.7% 27.7% 29.5%
BB%
6.0% 6.9% 7.9% 8.9% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.8%
50 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.9%
10 -23 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
30
Hard-hit allowed44.1%
22
K%23.4%
56 -25 vs proj
Whiff%20.8%
31 -49 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.338
29 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
38
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Early, Connelly · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3412026-05-19: 0.3412026-05-21: 0.3412026-05-23: 0.3402026-05-24: 0.3402026-05-25: 0.3402026-05-26: 0.3402026-05-28: 0.3382026-05-29: 0.3382026-05-30: 0.3382026-05-31: 0.3382026-06-01: 0.338 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Early, Connelly · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Early, Connelly · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.1%Changeup: 20.8%Sinker: 18.9%Curveball: 12.8%Slider: 7.7%Sweeper: 5.7% MIX FF 34%CH 21%SI 19%CU 13%SL 8%ST 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Early, Connelly · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.6, IVB 1.3FFCH: HB -0.8, IVB 3.5CHSI: HB 0.1, IVB 2.0SICU: HB 0.6, IVB 4.3CUSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.5SLST: HB -0.9, IVB 3.5ST horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.6% 342 101 qualified
CH 21.3% 210 104 qualified
SI 18.8% 186 100 limited sample
CB 12.7% 125 100 limited sample
SL 12.7% 125 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 28%, Changeup 18%, Curveball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.70
K% Δ-0.038
Sample66.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.5----
Batters Faced275----
K%27.2%22.8% to 37.1%+/- 7.1%
BB%7.6%3.2% to 9.8%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%27.6%21.8% to 32.9%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.100.05 to 1.43+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3090.204 to 0.331+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed9.1%3.4% to 10.6%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.651.64 to 5.24+/- 1.80
FIP2.880.80 to 3.58+/- 1.39
WHIP1.2490.939 to 1.568+/- 0.314
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

33 career BF

xwOBA0.174
K%29.9%
BB%3.8%
Barrel4.6%
vs RHH

65 career BF

xwOBA0.193
K%25.0%
BB%4.1%
Barrel5.5%