Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Fermin, José

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.0% K%
Range
18.7% to 34.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Volatile contact Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal5 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.64
ERA current pace3.28
ERA rolling p503.47
Observed weight46%
ERA
1.83 2.61 3.47 4.33 5.11
FIP
2.67 3.35 4.11 4.87 5.55
K%
22.8% 24.9% 27.3% 29.7% 31.8%
BB%
7.9% 9.5% 11.2% 12.9% 14.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
58
ERA3.28
74
BB%10.2%
36
K%27.7%
84
xwOBA allowed0.319
42
Barrel allowed8.9%
29
Fastball velo96.5
80
Hard-hit allowed42.7%
22
Whiff%28.7%
88
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Slider Stuff+104
68
Changeup Stuff+93
8
Fastball Stuff+97
17
Sinker Stuff+106
83
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 58%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Fermin, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.319 2026-08-25: 0.3252026-08-26: 0.3252026-08-27: 0.3272026-08-28: 0.3272026-08-29: 0.3272026-08-30: 0.3232026-08-31: 0.3222026-09-01: 0.3222026-09-02: 0.3222026-09-03: 0.3222026-09-04: 0.3222026-09-05: 0.319 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Fermin, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fermin, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 58.1%Sinker: 30.3%4-Seam Fastball: 6.4%Changeup: 5.3% SL58% · 90 mphprimary pitch SL 58%SI 30%FF 6%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fermin, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Slider: 58% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 90.5 mphSL90 mphSinker: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.4 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.7 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.0 mphCH93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 59.6% 300 104 qualified
SI 26.4% 133 106 limited sample
FB 7.8% 39 97 limited sample
CH 6.2% 31 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 49%, 4-Seam Fastball 46%, Sinker 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.68
K% Δ+0.027
Sample47.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.7----
Batters Faced156----
K%25.0%18.7% to 34.0%+/- 7.6%
BB%11.6%6.1% to 17.2%+/- 5.6%
Whiff%26.9%22.0% to 35.8%+/- 6.9%
HR/91.240.53 to 2.44+/- 0.95
xwOBA Against0.3090.226 to 0.368+/- 0.071
Barrel% Allowed9.5%4.2% to 16.2%+/- 6.0%
ERA3.921.97 to 6.59+/- 2.31
FIP3.872.30 to 6.36+/- 2.03
WHIP1.3220.996 to 1.718+/- 0.361
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

72 career BF

xwOBA0.252
K%22.1%
BB%13.9%
Barrel13.2%
vs RHH

83 career BF

xwOBA0.239
K%23.3%
BB%10.1%
Barrel10.2%