Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Fermin, José

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.3% K%
Range
18.7% to 34.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Volatile contact Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.64
ERA current pace3.21
ERA rolling p503.50
Observed weight33%
ERA
1.77 2.59 3.50 4.40 5.22
FIP
2.79 3.51 4.31 5.11 5.83
K%
21.0% 23.6% 26.4% 29.2% 31.8%
BB%
8.5% 10.4% 12.5% 14.6% 16.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
62
ERA3.21
71
BB%13.4%
9
K%25.2%
69
xwOBA allowed0.317
47
Barrel allowed7.0%
60 +34 vs proj
Fastball velo96.5
79
Hard-hit allowed45.1%
12
Whiff%29.1%
89
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+93
7
Fastball Stuff+96
17
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Sinker Stuff+107
90
Slider Stuff+102
51
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Fermin, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.317 2026-07-06: 0.3342026-07-07: 0.3282026-07-08: 0.3282026-07-09: 0.3282026-07-10: 0.3212026-07-11: 0.3212026-07-12: 0.3212026-07-13: 0.3172026-07-14: 0.3172026-07-15: 0.3172026-07-16: 0.3172026-07-17: 0.317 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Fermin, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fermin, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 55.9%Sinker: 29.2%4-Seam Fastball: 7.6%Changeup: 7.4% SL56% · 90 mphprimary pitch SL 56%SI 29%FF 8%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fermin, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Slider: 56% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 90.3 mphSL90 mphSinker: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.5 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.0 mphCH93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 57.6% 182 102 limited sample
SI 26.3% 83 107 limited sample
CH 8.5% 27 93 limited sample
FB 7.6% 24 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 49%, 4-Seam Fastball 46%, Sinker 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.71
K% Δ-0.001
Sample28.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.4----
Batters Faced155----
K%25.3%18.7% to 34.0%+/- 7.6%
BB%11.6%6.1% to 17.2%+/- 5.6%
Whiff%26.9%22.0% to 35.8%+/- 6.9%
HR/91.250.53 to 2.44+/- 0.95
xwOBA Against0.3090.226 to 0.368+/- 0.071
Barrel% Allowed9.5%4.2% to 16.2%+/- 6.0%
ERA3.921.97 to 6.59+/- 2.31
FIP3.872.30 to 6.37+/- 2.03
WHIP1.3200.996 to 1.718+/- 0.361
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

72 career BF

xwOBA0.252
K%22.1%
BB%13.9%
Barrel13.2%
vs RHH

83 career BF

xwOBA0.239
K%23.3%
BB%10.1%
Barrel10.2%