Section III · Betting · Consensus surface
Where the three lanes agree — and where they do not.
Every row with Palantir, Fangorn, and Valinor present is bucketed by lane spread. Aligned rows are tight. Soft consensus carries uncertainty. Disagreement is a headline product, not a secondary tab.
BANDS aligned ≤ 5pp · soft 6-10pp · disagreement > 10pp
ELIGIBLE 2 markets
MIXED 0 rows outside publish bands
VIEW split
Lane Health
2026-06-01
Palantir
3096 props
Brier 0.126
ECE 0.030
14d stable
Fangorn
3096 props
Brier 0.126
ECE 0.009
14d error falling
Valinor
1176 props
Brier 0.125
ECE 0.013
14d stable
Palantir
49 props
Brier 0.228
ECE 0.190
sample building
Fangorn
13 props
Brier 0.239
ECE 0.139
sample building
Valinor
32 props
Brier 0.236
ECE 0.220
sample building
Palantir
194 props
Brier 0.262
ECE 0.207
sample building
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
2 props
Brier 0.560
ECE 0.748
sample building
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
40 props
Brier 0.249
ECE 0.040
sample building
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
A · Three-lane aligned · spread ≤ 5pp
01
HR · 0.5
James Wood
WSH vs MIA
FULL
20.2% average · market 16.4% 1.7 pts +3.7pp 02 HR · 0.5 Mike Trout LAA vs COL
FULL
20.0% average · market 18.9% 1.2 pts +1.1pp 03 HR · 0.5 Corbin Carroll AZ vs LAD
FULL
19.3% average · market 17.5% 4.0 pts +1.8pp 04 HR · 0.5 Zach Neto LAA vs COL
FULL
19.1% average · market 16.9% 3.7 pts +2.3pp 05 HR · 0.5 Iván Herrera STL vs TEX
FULL
19.1% average · market 12.5% 3.6 pts +6.6pp 06 HR · 0.5 Cj Abrams WSH vs MIA
FULL
19.1% average · market 13.9% 3.5 pts +5.1pp 07 HR · 0.5 Christian Yelich MIL vs SF
FULL
18.8% average · market 16.4% 2.5 pts +2.3pp 08 HR · 0.5 Brandon Nimmo TEX vs STL
FULL
18.7% average · market 15.6% 2.3 pts +3.0pp 09 HR · 0.5 Ketel Marte AZ vs LAD
FULL
18.6% average · market 21.1% 1.9 pts -2.5pp 10 HR · 0.5 Evan Carter TEX vs STL
FULL
18.3% average · market 11.0% 1.3 pts +7.4pp 11 HR · 0.5 Juan Soto NYM vs SEA
FULL
18.3% average · market 24.1% 1.2 pts -5.8pp 12 HR · 0.5 Jo Adell LAA vs COL
FULL
18.3% average · market 20.8% 1.1 pts -2.6pp 13 HR · 0.5 Geraldo Perdomo AZ vs LAD
FULL
18.3% average · market 9.3% 1.1 pts +8.9pp 14 HR · 0.5 Alec Burleson STL vs TEX
FULL
18.3% average · market 13.3% 1.0 pts +5.0pp 15 HR · 0.5 Mookie Betts LAD vs AZ
FULL
18.2% average · market 15.9% 2.9 pts +2.3pp 16 HR · 0.5 Freddie Freeman LAD vs AZ
FULL
18.1% average · market 15.6% 2.8 pts +2.5pp 17 HR · 0.5 Wyatt Langford TEX vs STL
FULL
18.1% average · market 14.4% 2.7 pts +3.8pp 18 HR · 0.5 Yoán Moncada LAA vs COL
FULL
18.0% average · market 12.8% 0.4 pts +5.3pp 19 HR · 0.5 Andrew Benintendi CWS vs MIN
FULL
18.0% average · market 13.0% 0.3 pts +5.0pp 20 HR · 0.5 Shohei Ohtani LAD vs AZ
FULL
17.4% average · market 29.0% 0.6 pts -11.6pp 21 HR · 0.5 Jorge Polanco NYM vs SEA
FULL
17.3% average · market 16.2% 0.2 pts +1.1pp 22 HR · 0.5 Bo Bichette NYM vs SEA
FULL
17.3% average · market 11.7% 0.2 pts +5.6pp 23 HR · 0.5 Francisco Lindor NYM vs SEA
FULL
17.0% average · market 19.4% 3.8 pts -2.4pp 24 HR · 0.5 Logan O'Hoppe LAA vs COL
FULL
16.8% average · market 15.8% 1.4 pts +1.0pp 25 HR · 0.5 Luis García Jr. WSH vs MIA
FULL
16.4% average · market 12.4% 1.9 pts +4.0pp 26 HR · 0.5 Corey Seager TEX vs STL
FULL
16.3% average · market 22.5% 1.6 pts -6.2pp 27 HR · 0.5 Hunter Goodman COL vs LAA
FULL
16.0% average · market 18.0% 0.7 pts -2.1pp 28 HR · 0.5 Kyle Tucker LAD vs AZ
FULL
15.5% average · market 18.4% 3.8 pts -2.9pp 29 HR · 0.5 Teoscar Hernández LAD vs AZ
FULL
15.4% average · market 19.1% 3.4 pts -3.7pp 30 HR · 0.5 Agustín Ramírez MIA vs WSH
FULL
14.9% average · market 14.0% 2.2 pts +0.9pp 31 HR · 0.5 José Tena WSH vs MIA
FULL
14.9% average · market 7.7% 2.4 pts +7.2pp 32 HR · 0.5 Andy Pages LAD vs AZ
FULL
14.8% average · market 13.4% 4.3 pts +1.4pp 33 HR · 0.5 Jorge Soler LAA vs COL
FULL
14.7% average · market 18.2% 1.5 pts -3.5pp 34 HR · 0.5 Jakob Marsee MIA vs WSH
FULL
14.5% average · market 10.1% 1.0 pts +4.4pp 35 HR · 0.5 Brice Turang MIL vs SF
FULL
14.3% average · market 10.0% 0.2 pts +4.3pp 36 HR · 0.5 William Contreras MIL vs SF
FULL
14.2% average · market 12.5% 0.2 pts +1.7pp 37 HR · 0.5 Joc Pederson TEX vs STL
FULL
14.0% average · market 14.8% 0.6 pts -0.8pp 38 HR · 0.5 Keibert Ruiz WSH vs MIA
FULL
13.9% average · market 9.8% 1.1 pts +4.0pp 39 HR · 0.5 Carlos Santana AZ vs LAD
FULL
13.9% average · market 14.2% 1.5 pts -0.3pp 40 HR · 0.5 Jake Burger TEX vs STL
FULL
13.1% average · market 19.2% 0.8 pts -6.1pp 41 HR · 0.5 Edouard Julien COL vs LAA
FULL
13.1% average · market 10.9% 0.9 pts +2.2pp 42 HR · 0.5 Colson Montgomery CWS vs MIN
FULL
12.6% average · market 23.3% 3.4 pts -10.7pp 43 HR · 0.5 Marcus Semien NYM vs SEA
FULL
12.2% average · market 13.8% 2.4 pts -1.6pp 44 HR · 0.5 Ezequiel Tovar COL vs LAA
FULL
12.0% average · market 13.1% 2.6 pts -1.1pp 45 HR · 0.5 Brenton Doyle COL vs LAA
FULL
12.0% average · market 12.6% 1.6 pts -0.6pp 46 HR · 0.5 Willi Castro COL vs LAA
FULL
11.4% average · market 9.8% 0.0 pts +1.6pp 47 HR · 0.5 Edgar Quero CWS vs MIN
FULL
10.9% average · market 7.7% 1.5 pts +3.2pp 48 HR · 0.5 Xavier Edwards MIA vs WSH
FULL
5.5% average · market 8.0% 2.4 pts -2.5pp 49 HR · 0.5 Chase Meidroth CWS vs MIN
FULL
5.4% average · market 8.0% 2.0 pts -2.6pp
P
21.3
F
19.6
V
19.6
FULL
20.2% average · market 16.4% 1.7 pts +3.7pp 02 HR · 0.5 Mike Trout LAA vs COL
P
20.8
F
19.6
V
19.6
FULL
20.0% average · market 18.9% 1.2 pts +1.1pp 03 HR · 0.5 Corbin Carroll AZ vs LAD
P
22.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
19.3% average · market 17.5% 4.0 pts +1.8pp 04 HR · 0.5 Zach Neto LAA vs COL
P
21.6
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
19.1% average · market 16.9% 3.7 pts +2.3pp 05 HR · 0.5 Iván Herrera STL vs TEX
P
21.5
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
19.1% average · market 12.5% 3.6 pts +6.6pp 06 HR · 0.5 Cj Abrams WSH vs MIA
P
21.4
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
19.1% average · market 13.9% 3.5 pts +5.1pp 07 HR · 0.5 Christian Yelich MIL vs SF
P
20.4
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
18.8% average · market 16.4% 2.5 pts +2.3pp 08 HR · 0.5 Brandon Nimmo TEX vs STL
P
20.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
18.7% average · market 15.6% 2.3 pts +3.0pp 09 HR · 0.5 Ketel Marte AZ vs LAD
P
19.8
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
18.6% average · market 21.1% 1.9 pts -2.5pp 10 HR · 0.5 Evan Carter TEX vs STL
P
19.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
18.3% average · market 11.0% 1.3 pts +7.4pp 11 HR · 0.5 Juan Soto NYM vs SEA
P
19.1
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
18.3% average · market 24.1% 1.2 pts -5.8pp 12 HR · 0.5 Jo Adell LAA vs COL
P
19.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
18.3% average · market 20.8% 1.1 pts -2.6pp 13 HR · 0.5 Geraldo Perdomo AZ vs LAD
P
19.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
18.3% average · market 9.3% 1.1 pts +8.9pp 14 HR · 0.5 Alec Burleson STL vs TEX
P
18.9
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
18.3% average · market 13.3% 1.0 pts +5.0pp 15 HR · 0.5 Mookie Betts LAD vs AZ
P
20.1
F
17.2
V
17.2
FULL
18.2% average · market 15.9% 2.9 pts +2.3pp 16 HR · 0.5 Freddie Freeman LAD vs AZ
P
20.0
F
17.2
V
17.2
FULL
18.1% average · market 15.6% 2.8 pts +2.5pp 17 HR · 0.5 Wyatt Langford TEX vs STL
P
20.0
F
17.2
V
17.2
FULL
18.1% average · market 14.4% 2.7 pts +3.8pp 18 HR · 0.5 Yoán Moncada LAA vs COL
P
18.3
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
18.0% average · market 12.8% 0.4 pts +5.3pp 19 HR · 0.5 Andrew Benintendi CWS vs MIN
P
18.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
FULL
18.0% average · market 13.0% 0.3 pts +5.0pp 20 HR · 0.5 Shohei Ohtani LAD vs AZ
P
17.8
F
17.2
V
17.2
FULL
17.4% average · market 29.0% 0.6 pts -11.6pp 21 HR · 0.5 Jorge Polanco NYM vs SEA
P
17.4
F
17.2
V
17.2
FULL
17.3% average · market 16.2% 0.2 pts +1.1pp 22 HR · 0.5 Bo Bichette NYM vs SEA
P
17.4
F
17.2
V
17.2
FULL
17.3% average · market 11.7% 0.2 pts +5.6pp 23 HR · 0.5 Francisco Lindor NYM vs SEA
P
19.5
F
15.7
V
15.7
FULL
17.0% average · market 19.4% 3.8 pts -2.4pp 24 HR · 0.5 Logan O'Hoppe LAA vs COL
P
15.8
F
17.2
V
17.2
FULL
16.8% average · market 15.8% 1.4 pts +1.0pp 25 HR · 0.5 Luis García Jr. WSH vs MIA
P
17.6
F
15.7
V
15.7
FULL
16.4% average · market 12.4% 1.9 pts +4.0pp 26 HR · 0.5 Corey Seager TEX vs STL
P
17.4
F
15.7
V
15.7
FULL
16.3% average · market 22.5% 1.6 pts -6.2pp 27 HR · 0.5 Hunter Goodman COL vs LAA
P
16.4
F
15.7
V
15.7
FULL
16.0% average · market 18.0% 0.7 pts -2.1pp 28 HR · 0.5 Kyle Tucker LAD vs AZ
P
18.0
F
14.2
V
14.2
FULL
15.5% average · market 18.4% 3.8 pts -2.9pp 29 HR · 0.5 Teoscar Hernández LAD vs AZ
P
17.6
F
14.2
V
14.2
FULL
15.4% average · market 19.1% 3.4 pts -3.7pp 30 HR · 0.5 Agustín Ramírez MIA vs WSH
P
16.4
F
14.2
V
14.2
FULL
14.9% average · market 14.0% 2.2 pts +0.9pp 31 HR · 0.5 José Tena WSH vs MIA
P
13.4
F
15.7
V
15.7
FULL
14.9% average · market 7.7% 2.4 pts +7.2pp 32 HR · 0.5 Andy Pages LAD vs AZ
P
17.6
F
13.4
V
13.4
FULL
14.8% average · market 13.4% 4.3 pts +1.4pp 33 HR · 0.5 Jorge Soler LAA vs COL
P
15.7
F
14.2
V
14.2
FULL
14.7% average · market 18.2% 1.5 pts -3.5pp 34 HR · 0.5 Jakob Marsee MIA vs WSH
P
15.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
FULL
14.5% average · market 10.1% 1.0 pts +4.4pp 35 HR · 0.5 Brice Turang MIL vs SF
P
14.5
F
14.2
V
14.2
FULL
14.3% average · market 10.0% 0.2 pts +4.3pp 36 HR · 0.5 William Contreras MIL vs SF
P
14.1
F
14.2
V
14.2
FULL
14.2% average · market 12.5% 0.2 pts +1.7pp 37 HR · 0.5 Joc Pederson TEX vs STL
P
13.6
F
14.2
V
14.2
FULL
14.0% average · market 14.8% 0.6 pts -0.8pp 38 HR · 0.5 Keibert Ruiz WSH vs MIA
P
13.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
FULL
13.9% average · market 9.8% 1.1 pts +4.0pp 39 HR · 0.5 Carlos Santana AZ vs LAD
P
14.8
F
13.4
V
13.4
FULL
13.9% average · market 14.2% 1.5 pts -0.3pp 40 HR · 0.5 Jake Burger TEX vs STL
P
12.6
F
13.4
V
13.4
FULL
13.1% average · market 19.2% 0.8 pts -6.1pp 41 HR · 0.5 Edouard Julien COL vs LAA
P
12.5
F
13.4
V
13.4
FULL
13.1% average · market 10.9% 0.9 pts +2.2pp 42 HR · 0.5 Colson Montgomery CWS vs MIN
P
14.8
F
11.4
V
11.4
FULL
12.6% average · market 23.3% 3.4 pts -10.7pp 43 HR · 0.5 Marcus Semien NYM vs SEA
P
13.8
F
11.4
V
11.4
FULL
12.2% average · market 13.8% 2.4 pts -1.6pp 44 HR · 0.5 Ezequiel Tovar COL vs LAA
P
13.7
F
11.1
V
11.1
FULL
12.0% average · market 13.1% 2.6 pts -1.1pp 45 HR · 0.5 Brenton Doyle COL vs LAA
P
13.0
F
11.4
V
11.4
FULL
12.0% average · market 12.6% 1.6 pts -0.6pp 46 HR · 0.5 Willi Castro COL vs LAA
P
11.4
F
11.4
V
11.4
FULL
11.4% average · market 9.8% 0.0 pts +1.6pp 47 HR · 0.5 Edgar Quero CWS vs MIN
P
9.9
F
11.4
V
11.4
FULL
10.9% average · market 7.7% 1.5 pts +3.2pp 48 HR · 0.5 Xavier Edwards MIA vs WSH
P
7.1
F
4.7
V
4.7
FULL
5.5% average · market 8.0% 2.4 pts -2.5pp 49 HR · 0.5 Chase Meidroth CWS vs MIN
P
6.8
F
4.7
V
4.7
FULL
5.4% average · market 8.0% 2.0 pts -2.6pp
B · Soft consensus · spread 6-10pp
C · Disagreement watch · spread > 10pp
01
HR · 0.5
Daylen Lile
WSH vs MIA
FULL
Palantir sees 20.4%; Fangorn sees 11.4%; gap of 9.0 pts. Market fair: 11.1%. 9.0 pts +3.3pp 02 HR · 0.5 Victor Scott II STL vs TEX
FULL
Palantir sees 7.7%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 7.7 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. 7.7 pts -5.2pp
P
20.4
F
11.4
V
11.4
FULL
Palantir sees 20.4%; Fangorn sees 11.4%; gap of 9.0 pts. Market fair: 11.1%. 9.0 pts +3.3pp 02 HR · 0.5 Victor Scott II STL vs TEX
P
7.7
F
0.0
V
0.0
FULL
Palantir sees 7.7%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 7.7 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. 7.7 pts -5.2pp
D · Coverage transparency