Consensus & Disagreement | Mithrandir Metrics

BANDS aligned ≤ 5pp · soft 6-10pp · disagreement > 10pp ELIGIBLE 1 markets MIXED 0 rows outside publish bands VIEW split

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable

Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building

Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising

Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Filter rules Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

A · Three-lane aligned · spread ≤ 5pp

01 HR · 0.5 Yandy Díaz TB vs NYM

FULL
14.7% average · market 15.5% 1.3 pts -0.8pp 02 HR · 0.5 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD vs CIN

FULL
14.2% average · market 17.9% 3.2 pts -3.6pp 03 HR · 0.5 Manny Machado SD vs CIN

FULL
14.1% average · market 19.6% 2.4 pts -5.5pp 04 HR · 0.5 Shohei Ohtani LAD vs STL

FULL
14.0% average · market 29.8% 4.5 pts -15.8pp 05 HR · 0.5 Matt Olson ATL vs WSH

FULL
14.0% average · market 21.7% 2.7 pts -7.7pp 06 HR · 0.5 Christian Yelich MIL vs CHC

FULL
14.0% average · market 16.3% 2.2 pts -2.3pp 07 HR · 0.5 Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL vs WSH

FULL
13.9% average · market 19.4% 2.6 pts -5.5pp 08 HR · 0.5 Juan Soto NYM vs TB

FULL
13.9% average · market 24.1% 0.5 pts -10.2pp 09 HR · 0.5 Jose Altuve HOU vs CWS

FULL
13.8% average · market 15.8% 2.2 pts -1.9pp 10 HR · 0.5 Francisco Lindor NYM vs TB

FULL
13.7% average · market 19.4% 2.1 pts -5.7pp 11 HR · 0.5 Elly De La Cruz CIN vs SD

FULL
13.7% average · market 15.8% 2.8 pts -2.1pp 12 HR · 0.5 Yordan Alvarez HOU vs CWS

FULL
13.5% average · market 20.8% 2.3 pts -7.4pp 13 HR · 0.5 Junior Caminero TB vs NYM

FULL
13.4% average · market 22.7% 1.9 pts -9.4pp 14 HR · 0.5 Ozzie Albies ATL vs WSH

FULL
13.3% average · market 14.1% 2.3 pts -0.7pp 15 HR · 0.5 Iván Herrera STL vs LAD

FULL
13.3% average · market 13.7% 4.8 pts -0.4pp 16 HR · 0.5 Rafael Devers SF vs PIT

FULL
13.3% average · market 20.8% 3.2 pts -7.5pp 17 HR · 0.5 Christian Walker HOU vs CWS

FULL
13.3% average · market 18.2% 2.0 pts -4.9pp 18 HR · 0.5 Bryce Harper PHI vs AZ

FULL
13.2% average · market 18.9% 2.1 pts -5.7pp 19 HR · 0.5 William Contreras MIL vs CHC

FULL
13.1% average · market 13.5% 1.3 pts -0.4pp 20 HR · 0.5 Eugenio Suárez CIN vs SD

FULL
13.0% average · market 21.7% 2.3 pts -8.8pp 21 HR · 0.5 Trea Turner PHI vs AZ

FULL
13.0% average · market 15.4% 1.4 pts -2.4pp 22 HR · 0.5 Jackson Merrill SD vs CIN

FULL
12.9% average · market 15.3% 2.2 pts -2.4pp 23 HR · 0.5 George Springer TOR vs CLE

FULL
12.8% average · market 17.7% 1.1 pts -4.9pp 24 HR · 0.5 Kyle Schwarber PHI vs AZ

FULL
12.7% average · market 26.0% 2.2 pts -13.3pp 25 HR · 0.5 Heliot Ramos SF vs PIT

FULL
12.7% average · market 13.7% 0.5 pts -1.0pp 26 HR · 0.5 Tj Friedl CIN vs SD

FULL
12.6% average · market 13.3% 1.5 pts -0.7pp 27 HR · 0.5 Ketel Marte AZ vs PHI

FULL
12.6% average · market 21.5% 1.1 pts -8.9pp 28 HR · 0.5 Drake Baldwin ATL vs WSH

FULL
12.6% average · market 16.0% 1.1 pts -3.4pp 29 HR · 0.5 Wilyer Abreu BOS vs SEA

FULL
12.6% average · market 16.3% 0.6 pts -3.7pp 30 HR · 0.5 Freddie Freeman LAD vs STL

FULL
12.6% average · market 17.0% 2.5 pts -4.3pp 31 HR · 0.5 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR vs CLE

FULL
12.6% average · market 17.0% 0.5 pts -4.4pp 32 HR · 0.5 Austin Riley ATL vs WSH

FULL
12.6% average · market 17.0% 2.1 pts -4.4pp 33 HR · 0.5 Hunter Goodman COL vs BAL

FULL
12.5% average · market 18.0% 0.3 pts -5.5pp 34 HR · 0.5 Brandon Lowe PIT vs SF

FULL
12.4% average · market 20.4% 0.7 pts -8.0pp 35 HR · 0.5 Isaac Paredes HOU vs CWS

FULL
12.4% average · market 16.0% 1.6 pts -3.6pp 36 HR · 0.5 Mike Yastrzemski ATL vs WSH

FULL
12.4% average · market 14.1% 2.9 pts -1.7pp 37 HR · 0.5 Kyle Tucker LAD vs STL

FULL
12.3% average · market 19.1% 1.1 pts -6.7pp 38 HR · 0.5 Luis García Jr. WSH vs ATL

FULL
12.3% average · market 13.0% 3.4 pts -0.7pp 39 HR · 0.5 Jeremy Peña HOU vs CWS

FULL
12.3% average · market 11.2% 2.6 pts +1.1pp 40 HR · 0.5 Bryan Reynolds PIT vs SF

FULL
12.2% average · market 14.1% 1.7 pts -1.9pp 41 HR · 0.5 Daulton Varsho TOR vs CLE

FULL
12.1% average · market 17.5% 1.6 pts -5.4pp 42 HR · 0.5 Andrew Benintendi CWS vs HOU

FULL
12.1% average · market 13.5% 4.7 pts -1.4pp 43 HR · 0.5 Corbin Carroll AZ vs PHI

FULL
12.1% average · market 17.0% 1.4 pts -4.9pp 44 HR · 0.5 Bo Bichette NYM vs TB

FULL
12.0% average · market 11.7% 2.4 pts +0.3pp 45 HR · 0.5 Mookie Betts LAD vs STL

FULL
12.0% average · market 16.1% 1.0 pts -4.2pp 46 HR · 0.5 Tyler Stephenson CIN vs SD

FULL
11.8% average · market 12.8% 2.0 pts -1.0pp 47 HR · 0.5 Roman Anthony BOS vs SEA

FULL
11.8% average · market 12.6% 2.5 pts -0.8pp 48 HR · 0.5 Ezequiel Tovar COL vs BAL

FULL
11.8% average · market 13.1% 0.4 pts -1.3pp 49 HR · 0.5 Teoscar Hernández LAD vs STL

FULL
11.7% average · market 18.4% 0.9 pts -6.6pp 50 HR · 0.5 Jesús Sánchez TOR vs CLE

FULL
11.7% average · market 12.8% 1.3 pts -1.1pp 51 HR · 0.5 Marcus Semien NYM vs TB

FULL
11.7% average · market 13.8% 2.2 pts -2.1pp 52 HR · 0.5 Colson Montgomery CWS vs HOU

FULL
11.6% average · market 23.3% 0.4 pts -11.6pp 53 HR · 0.5 Brice Turang MIL vs CHC

FULL
11.3% average · market 8.7% 1.2 pts +2.6pp 54 HR · 0.5 Jarren Duran BOS vs SEA

FULL
11.3% average · market 12.3% 3.3 pts -1.0pp 55 HR · 0.5 Brenton Doyle COL vs BAL

FULL
11.3% average · market 12.5% 1.0 pts -1.2pp 56 HR · 0.5 Jj Bleday CIN vs SD

FULL
11.2% average · market 13.4% 0.9 pts -2.2pp 57 HR · 0.5 Willi Castro COL vs BAL

FULL
11.1% average · market 9.8% 1.5 pts +1.3pp 58 HR · 0.5 Ramón Urías STL vs LAD

FULL
11.1% average · market 10.4% 3.7 pts +0.7pp 59 HR · 0.5 Alec Bohm PHI vs AZ

FULL
10.9% average · market 11.6% 1.9 pts -0.7pp 60 HR · 0.5 Max Muncy LAD vs STL

FULL
10.8% average · market 19.2% 1.5 pts -8.4pp 61 HR · 0.5 Nathan Lukes TOR vs CLE

FULL
10.8% average · market 9.1% 3.9 pts +1.7pp 62 HR · 0.5 Keibert Ruiz WSH vs ATL

FULL
10.8% average · market 9.8% 3.9 pts +0.9pp 63 HR · 0.5 Geraldo Perdomo AZ vs PHI

FULL
10.7% average · market 8.9% 2.8 pts +1.8pp 64 HR · 0.5 Spencer Horwitz PIT vs SF

FULL
10.4% average · market 11.8% 2.4 pts -1.4pp 65 HR · 0.5 José Tena WSH vs ATL

FULL
10.2% average · market 7.7% 5.0 pts +2.5pp 66 HR · 0.5 Jung Hoo Lee SF vs PIT

FULL
8.8% average · market 7.7% 3.8 pts +1.1pp 67 HR · 0.5 Chase Meidroth CWS vs HOU

FULL
8.3% average · market 7.7% 3.8 pts +0.6pp 68 HR · 0.5 Jake Mangum PIT vs SF

FULL
8.2% average · market 7.7% 4.1 pts +0.5pp

B · Soft consensus · spread 6-10pp

01 HR · 0.5 Cj Abrams WSH vs ATL

FULL
13.9% average · market 14.6% 5.2 pts -0.7pp 02 HR · 0.5 Daylen Lile WSH vs ATL

FULL
12.1% average · market 11.1% 7.1 pts +1.0pp 03 HR · 0.5 Luis Arraez SF vs PIT

FULL
9.8% average · market 7.7% 6.2 pts +2.1pp

C · Disagreement watch · spread > 10pp

01 HR · 0.5 Daylen Lile WSH vs ATL

FULL
Palantir sees 15.9%; Valinor sees 8.8%; gap of 7.1 pts. Market fair: 11.1%. 7.1 pts +1.0pp 02 HR · 0.5 Luis Arraez SF vs PIT

FULL
Valinor sees 12.4%; Palantir sees 6.2%; gap of 6.2 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. 6.2 pts +2.1pp 03 HR · 0.5 Cj Abrams WSH vs ATL

FULL
Palantir sees 16.4%; Valinor sees 11.2%; gap of 5.2 pts. Market fair: 13.9%. 5.2 pts -0.0pp

D · Coverage transparency

Three-lane eligible 1 Home Runs

Partial coverage 0 No markets in this bucket today.

Single-lane 5 Strikeouts · Total Bases · Hits · Pitcher Outs · Futures

Contract 5 / 10 Consensus thresholds documented in the lane contract.