Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-07-17

Merrill Kelly

AZ · SP · throws R · age 38
Projected starter Opp K 21.6% Neutral
MatchupAZ vs STLopponent
Sample1102.0career MLB IP
PROPS 1 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 16 rows
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts3.5
P 66.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.2% Market -- Gap +13.1pp
DraftKings -129 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs--
Pitcher Outs · tracking

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.58
11
ERA5.38
18
BB%9.1%
43 -23 vs proj
K%13.7%
4 -35 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.405
1 -33 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.8%
2 -36 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
18
Hard-hit allowed44.7%
14
Whiff%19.2%
18
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Changeup Stuff+105
69
Fastball Stuff+99
28
Mithrandir Stuff+100
35
Curveball Stuff+103
Small sample
Cutter Stuff+98
Small sample
Sinker Stuff+102
Small sample
Slider Stuff+100
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range17.1% to 27.1%
Opponent K21.6%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)