Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-01

Matthew Boyd

CHC · SP · throws L · age 35
Projected starter Opp K 22.1% Neutral
MatchupCHC vs MILopponent
Sample1185.0career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 14 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts4.5
P 51.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 51.9% Market -- Gap +3.8pp
FanDuel -104 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs17.5
P 49.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.3% Market 56.5% Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel -130 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
53
ERA4.15
46
BB%7.5%
70
K%18.9%
28 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.341
23 -22 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.8%
9 -25 vs proj
Fastball velo92.8
23
Hard-hit allowed40.2%
37
Whiff%20.9%
34
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Changeup Stuff+107
89
Fastball Stuff+102
45
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Curveball Stuff+103
Small sample
Slider Stuff+100
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range16.8% to 26.2%
Opponent K22.1%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)