Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-10

Jacob deGrom

TEX · SP · throws R · age 38
Projected starter Opp K 25.1% Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupTEX vs SEAopponent
Sample--career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 9 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts6.5
P 33.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 33.3% Market -- Gap +19.6pp
FanDuel -128 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs16.5
P 47.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 47.5% Market 54.1% Gap +3.1pp
FanDuel -118 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.09
85
ERA3.80
58
BB%6.5%
85
K%29.7%
92 +20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.292
74 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.4%
37
Fastball velo97.3
90
Hard-hit allowed44.9%
11
Whiff%31.3%
96 +23 vs proj

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range19.5% to 34.1%
Opponent K25.1%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)