Mithrandir Metrics

PITCHER OUTS 2026-09-10 · saved artifact ROWS 7 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist

Lane Health 2026-09-11

Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Pitcher Outs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Signal caveat Market context only.

Pitcher outs is running as market context only right now. On the graded record to date the model's over/under probabilities have not shown reliable signal at posted lines, and daily recalibration is intentionally pulling them toward neutral. Treat this board as context, not conviction, while the sample accumulates.

658 / 300 fresh graded predictions. Auto-review at 300 fresh graded predictions (since 2026-07-01): the caveat lifts only when the calibration curve is monotone and Brier is at or under the base rate.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Pitcher Outs board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	Outs proj	IP	BF	Recent K	Recent BB	Best line
01	Max FriedNYY	NYY vs COLhitter-friendly	P 48.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 15.5	51.5%Under prob · Palantir	39.6%no-vig	+5.30%	17.37count	5.79leash	22.266volume	0.2106traffic	0.0769traffic	FanDuel -182 avg 1 books
02	Logan GilbertSEA	SEA vs TEXpitcher-friendly	P 47.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	52.5%Under prob · Palantir	42.1%no-vig	+26.73%	16.02count	5.34leash	22.187volume	0.2822traffic	0.0808traffic	FanDuel -166 avg 1 books
03	Zack WheelerPHI	PHI vs HOUhitter-friendly	P 47.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	52.6%Under prob · Palantir	42.3%no-vig	+10.60%	17.00count	5.67leash	23.778volume	0.3163traffic	0.107traffic	FanDuel -160 avg 1 books
04	Ryan FeltnerCOL	COL vs NYYhitter-friendly	P 47.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	47.4%Over prob · Palantir	42.8%no-vig	+4.67%	14.46count	4.82leash	23.072volume	0.1808traffic	0.1155traffic	FanDuel 118 avg 1 books
05	Jacob deGromTEX	TEX vs SEApitcher-friendly	P 47.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 16.5	52.5%Under prob · Palantir	49.4%no-vig	+0.92%	16.00count	5.33leash	20.82volume	0.3026traffic	0.0759traffic	FanDuel -118 avg 1 books
06	Cristian JavierHOU	HOU vs PHIhitter-friendly	P 47.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 14.5	47.6%Over prob · Palantir	47.0%no-vig	+0.95%	14.63count	4.88leash	20.234volume	0.1904traffic	0.0849traffic	FanDuel -102 avg 1 books
07	Nick MartinezTB	TB vs ATLneutral	P 47.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 17.5	47.5%Over prob · Palantir	47.0%no-vig	+3.33%	17.04count	5.68leash	23.605volume	0.1649traffic	0.0381traffic	FanDuel -102 avg 1 books