Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-08-31

Aaron Nola

PHI · SP
Projected starter Opp K 20.6% Neutral
MatchupPHI vs AZopponent
Sample1858.667career MLB IP
PROPS 1 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 10 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts5.5
P 52.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 37.4% Market -- Gap +4.3pp
DraftKings -142 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs--
Pitcher Outs · tracking

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
27
ERA5.12
24
BB%8.2%
59 -22 vs proj
K%24.6%
67 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.315
47
Barrel allowed9.6%
19
Fastball velo92.0
14
Hard-hit allowed42.0%
25
Whiff%26.1%
76 +41 vs proj
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Mithrandir Stuff+102
46

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range--
Opponent K20.6%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)