Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-07-17

Seth Lugo

KC · SP · throws R · age 37
Projected starter Opp K 19.1% Neutral
MatchupKC vs SDopponent
Sample1097.667career MLB IP
PROPS 1 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 16 rows
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts4.5
P 53.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.5% Market -- Gap +12.8pp
DraftKings 132 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs--
Pitcher Outs · tracking

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
21
ERA4.56
35
BB%7.9%
63
K%19.1%
27
xwOBA allowed0.357
12
Barrel allowed10.1%
20 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo91.6
12
Hard-hit allowed44.7%
14
Whiff%16.5%
6
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Curveball Stuff+105
87
Fastball Stuff+100
34
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+107
88
Slider Stuff+103
58
Changeup Stuff+107
Small sample
Cutter Stuff+101
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range14.6% to 25.0%
Opponent K19.1%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)