Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-01

Sean Manaea

NYM · SP · throws L · age 34
Projected starter Opp K 23.6% Neutral
MatchupNYM vs TBopponent
Sample1367.667career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 15 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts4.5
P 52.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 52.2% Market -- Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel -111 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs17.5
P 50.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 50.8% Market 64.5% Gap +9.3pp
FanDuel -182 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.33
52
ERA4.31
42
BB%7.3%
73
K%22.6%
54
xwOBA allowed0.336
27
Barrel allowed11.2%
7 -26 vs proj
Fastball velo90.9
6
Hard-hit allowed42.0%
26
Whiff%21.3%
36 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Fastball Stuff+101
40
Mithrandir Stuff+101
40
Sinker Stuff+104
67
Slider Stuff+97
19
Changeup Stuff+99
Small sample
Cutter Stuff+98
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range20.1% to 29.7%
Opponent K23.6%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)