Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-09-02 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-02

Dylan Cease

TOR · SP · throws R · age 31
Projected starter Opp K 20.8% Neutral
MatchupTOR vs CLEopponent
Sample1165.667career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 9 rows
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts6.5
P 44.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 44.6% Market -- Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel -111 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs18.5
P 49.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.0% Market 49.5% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 102 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.05
89
ERA2.25
93
BB%10.7%
29 -18 vs proj
K%35.6%
98
xwOBA allowed0.254
95 +36 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.9%
88 +54 vs proj
Fastball velo96.9
85
Hard-hit allowed32.4%
89
Whiff%31.3%
95

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range23.7% to 35.9%
Opponent K20.8%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)