Mithrandir Metrics

PITCHER OUTS 2026-09-02 · saved artifact ROWS 12 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist

Lane Health 2026-09-03

Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Pitcher Outs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Signal caveat Market context only.

Pitcher outs is running as market context only right now. On the graded record to date the model's over/under probabilities have not shown reliable signal at posted lines, and daily recalibration is intentionally pulling them toward neutral. Treat this board as context, not conviction, while the sample accumulates.

582 / 300 fresh graded predictions. Auto-review at 300 fresh graded predictions (since 2026-07-01): the caveat lifts only when the calibration curve is monotone and Brier is at or under the base rate.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Pitcher Outs board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	Outs proj	IP	BF	Recent K	Recent BB	Best line
01	David PetersonCHC	CHC vs MILneutral	P 52.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	52.5%Over prob · Palantir	43.3%no-vig	+16.14%	16.25count	5.42leash	24.062volume	0.2098traffic	0.0931traffic	FanDuel 116 avg 1 books
02	Joey CantilloCLE	CLE vs TORneutral	P 50.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	50.0%Over prob · Palantir	42.1%no-vig	+3.09%	15.24count	5.08leash	20.467volume	0.2908traffic	0.1434traffic	FanDuel 122 avg 1 books
03	Jacob MisiorowskiMIL	MIL vs CHCneutral	P 49.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	50.3%Under prob · Palantir	42.8%no-vig	+33.00%	15.74count	5.25leash	21.477volume	0.3255traffic	0.0667traffic	FanDuel -158 avg 1 books
04	Casey MizeSD	SD vs CINhitter-friendly	P 50.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	50.5%Over prob · Palantir	45.8%no-vig	+3.18%	15.75count	5.25leash	21.482volume	0.2499traffic	0.0765traffic	FanDuel 104 avg 1 books
05	Dean KremerMIN	MIN vs DETneutral	P 53.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	53.2%Over prob · Palantir	49.0%no-vig	+12.70%	16.96count	5.65leash	22.211volume	0.2338traffic	0.1traffic	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
06	Tomoyuki SuganoCOL	COL vs BALhitter-friendly	P 50.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	50.0%Over prob · Palantir	46.1%no-vig	+1.21%	15.35count	5.12leash	22.396volume	0.1769traffic	0.0484traffic	FanDuel 102 avg 1 books
07	Trevor RogersBAL	BAL vs COLhitter-friendly	P 50.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	49.6%Under prob · Palantir	45.8%no-vig	+0.50%	17.65count	5.88leash	23.212volume	0.2105traffic	0.0509traffic	FanDuel -138 avg 1 books
08	Jacob LopezATH	ATH vs TEXneutral	P 49.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 16.5	49.1%Over prob · Palantir	46.1%no-vig	+3.95%	15.46count	5.15leash	21.958volume	0.2104traffic	0.0909traffic	FanDuel 102 avg 1 books
09	Dylan CeaseTOR	TOR vs CLEneutral	P 49.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 18.5	49.0%Over prob · Palantir	46.2%no-vig	+9.70%	16.74count	5.58leash	23.37volume	0.3284traffic	0.1121traffic	FanDuel 102 avg 1 books
10	Noah CameronKC	KC vs MIAneutral	P 50.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	49.8%Under prob · Palantir	47.2%no-vig	+0.57%	17.51count	5.84leash	23.844volume	0.213traffic	0.0787traffic	FanDuel -130 avg 1 books
11	Bryce MillerSEA	SEA vs BOSneutral	P 49.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	49.6%Over prob · Palantir	48.6%no-vig	+0.16%	15.11count	5.04leash	22.188volume	0.2111traffic	0.1051traffic	FanDuel -108 avg 1 books
12	Landen RouppSF	SF vs PITneutral	P 49.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	49.2%Over prob · Palantir	48.6%no-vig	+5.22%	14.74count	4.91leash	22.528volume	0.2538traffic	0.1328traffic	FanDuel -108 avg 1 books