Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-07-27

Mitch Keller

PIT · SP · throws R · age 30
Projected starter Opp K 20.6% Neutral
MatchupPIT vs AZopponent
Sample986.333career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 9 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts3.5
P 60.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.4% Market -- Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel -170 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs15.5
P 45.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 45.9% Market 44.6% Gap +4.2pp
FanDuel 124 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.33
49
ERA4.90
29
BB%8.2%
58 -22 vs proj
K%18.8%
25
xwOBA allowed0.349
17
Barrel allowed7.3%
55 +17 vs proj
Fastball velo93.0
26
Hard-hit allowed41.8%
33
Whiff%19.4%
22

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range17.9% to 27.3%
Opponent K20.6%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)