Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher Outs

Pitcher Outs · Palantir.

Starter workload probabilities with leash, traffic, and lane-health context.

Rows
7
Date
2026-07-27
Lane
Palantir
PITCHER OUTS 2026-07-27 · saved artifact ROWS 7 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist
Model-market gaps are provisional This market's model lanes don't yet have enough graded results to validate the gaps. Treat them as early model signals, not established advantages.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Pitcher Outs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing
Signal caveat Market context only.

Pitcher outs is running as market context only right now. On the graded record to date the model's over/under probabilities have not shown reliable signal at posted lines, and daily recalibration is intentionally pulling them toward neutral. Treat this board as context, not conviction, while the sample accumulates.

190 / 300 fresh graded predictions. Auto-review at 300 fresh graded predictions (since 2026-07-01): the caveat lifts only when the calibration curve is monotone and Brier is at or under the base rate.
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Pitcher Outs board
#PlayerMatchupThree lanesLineModelMarketGap Outs projIPBFRecent KRecent BB Best line
01
George KirbySEA
SEA vs TEXhitter-friendly
P 50.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 18.5
50.8%Over prob · Palantir 42.4%no-vig +0.34% 17.21count5.74leash23.859volume0.2422traffic0.0424traffic FanDuel 118 avg 1 books
02
Zack WheelerPHI
PHI vs MIAneutral
P 47.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 18.5
47.1%Over prob · Palantir 40.2%no-vig +9.78% 18.73count6.24leash24.151volume0.3163traffic0.0419traffic FanDuel 132 avg 1 books
03
Slade CecconiCLE
CLE vs CINhitter-friendly
P 45.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 15.5
54.1%Under prob · Palantir 49.2%no-vig +3.73% 16.17count5.39leash22.947volume0.1915traffic0.0776traffic FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
04
Kumar RockerTEX
TEX vs SEAhitter-friendly
P 52.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 16.5
52.3%Over prob · Palantir 47.4%no-vig +11.87% 14.99count5.00leash21.41volume0.2043traffic0.0759traffic FanDuel -104 avg 1 books
05
Mitch KellerPIT
PIT vs AZneutral
P 45.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 15.5
45.9%Over prob · Palantir 41.7%no-vig +13.88% 16.44count5.48leash22.391volume0.1924traffic0.0667traffic FanDuel 124 avg 1 books
06
Kyle BradishBAL
BAL vs DETneutral
P 51.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 17.5
48.8%Under prob · Palantir 44.8%no-vig +16.31% 15.94count5.31leash22.669volume0.2743traffic0.0971traffic FanDuel -146 avg 1 books
07
Keider MonteroDET
DET vs BALneutral
P 48.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 15.5
51.7%Under prob · Palantir 51.0%no-vig +2.19% 15.28count5.09leash21.72volume0.2048traffic0.0504traffic FanDuel -110 avg 1 books