Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-01

Jake Irvin

WSH · SP · throws R · age 29
Projected starter Opp K 22.4% Neutral
MatchupWSH vs ATLopponent
Sample570.333career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 16 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts4.5
P 41.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 41.4% Market -- Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs15.5
P 51.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 51.1% Market 45.1% Gap +9.2pp
FanDuel 122 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
41
ERA5.82
14
BB%10.5%
32 -37 vs proj
K%22.8%
56 +35 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.351
14
Barrel allowed10.6%
10 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo92.6
21
Hard-hit allowed44.5%
12
Whiff%21.6%
40 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Curveball Stuff+104
73
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Sinker Stuff+106
83
Changeup Stuff+103
Small sample
Cutter Stuff+105
Small sample
Slider Stuff+101
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range14.7% to 23.9%
Opponent K22.4%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)