Mithrandir Metrics
CLE 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-01

Gavin Williams

CLE · SP · throws R · age 27
Projected starter Opp K 19.4% Neutral
MatchupCLE vs TORopponent
Sample481.667career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 15 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts6.5
P 33.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 33.5% Market -- Gap +9.1pp
FanDuel 122 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs17.5
P 49.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.3% Market 58.0% Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel -138 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
82
ERA3.72
58
BB%7.4%
71
K%31.8%
96
xwOBA allowed0.309
55
Barrel allowed11.6%
6
Fastball velo97.2
89
Hard-hit allowed46.9%
4
Whiff%29.4%
91
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Curveball Stuff+104
71
Fastball Stuff+106
74
Mithrandir Stuff+105
80
Sinker Stuff+107
91
Slider Stuff+102
47
Cutter Stuff+106
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range20.0% to 29.8%
Opponent K19.4%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)