Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-07-18

Trevor Rogers

BAL · SP · throws L · age 29
Projected starter Opp K 20.3% Neutral
MatchupBAL vs HOUopponent
Sample610.333career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 15 rows
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts4.5
P 43.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 43.4% Market -- Gap +3.3pp
FanDuel 102 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs17.5
P 51.2
F 50.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 51.2% Market 53.3% Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel -114 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
50
ERA4.48
39
BB%7.6%
65
K%18.7%
25
xwOBA allowed0.320
44
Barrel allowed6.8%
64 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed41.4%
32
Whiff%20.9%
33
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Changeup Stuff+104
65
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Cutter Stuff+98
Small sample
Sinker Stuff+103
Small sample
Slider Stuff+96
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range17.1% to 25.6%
Opponent K20.3%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)