Mithrandir Metrics

PITCHER OUTS 2026-07-18 · saved artifact ROWS 9 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist

Lane Health 2026-07-18

Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Pitcher Outs

Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.

Palantir production Fangorn experimental Valinor missing

Signal caveat Market context only.

Pitcher outs is running as market context only right now. On the graded record to date the model's over/under probabilities have not shown reliable signal at posted lines, and daily recalibration is intentionally pulling them toward neutral. Treat this board as context, not conviction, while the sample accumulates.

0 / 300 fresh graded predictions. Auto-review at 300 fresh graded predictions (since 2026-07-01): the caveat lifts only when the calibration curve is monotone and Brier is at or under the base rate.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Pitcher Outs board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	Outs proj	IP	BF	Recent K	Recent BB	Best line
01	Spencer ArrighettiHOU	HOU vs BALneutral	P 50.0 F 48.2 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Over 15.5	50.0%Over prob · Palantir	43.3%no-vig	+1.10%	14.45count	4.82leash	22.289volume	0.2288traffic	0.1654traffic	FanDuel 116 avg 1 books
02	Taj BradleyMIN	MIN vs CHCneutral	P 47.1 F 46.5 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 16.5	52.9%Under prob · Palantir	47.0%no-vig	+3.39%	16.78count	5.59leash	23.025volume	0.2547traffic	0.0857traffic	FanDuel -132 avg 1 books
03	Shane BieberTOR	TOR vs CWSneutral	P 47.9 F 50.3 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 15.5	52.1%Under prob · Palantir	47.2%no-vig	+0.40%	15.44count	5.15leash	21.886volume	0.2182traffic	0.1179traffic	FanDuel -130 avg 1 books
04	Gavin WilliamsCLE	CLE vs PIThitter-friendly	P 49.6 F 47.8 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 17.5	50.4%Under prob · Palantir	45.8%no-vig	+8.89%	16.70count	5.57leash	22.911volume	0.3047traffic	0.074traffic	FanDuel -138 avg 1 books
05	Dustin MaySTL	STL vs AZneutral	P 47.3 F 44.9 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 15.5	52.7%Under prob · Palantir	49.0%no-vig	+2.69%	15.76count	5.25leash	20.394volume	0.1933traffic	0.0761traffic	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
06	Davis MartinCWS	CWS vs TORneutral	P 48.5 F 46.1 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 16.5	51.5%Under prob · Palantir	48.6%no-vig	+1.63%	16.14count	5.38leash	22.254volume	0.2106traffic	0.1036traffic	FanDuel -122 avg 1 books
07	Max MeyerMIA	MIA vs MILpitcher-friendly	P 46.7 F 45.5 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Over 16.5	46.7%Over prob · Palantir	45.1%no-vig	+6.37%	16.88count	5.63leash	22.95volume	0.2415traffic	0.0781traffic	FanDuel 106 avg 1 books
08	Trevor RogersBAL	BAL vs HOUneutral	P 51.2 F 50.0 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Over 17.5	51.2%Over prob · Palantir	50.0%no-vig	+11.26%	16.00count	5.33leash	22.583volume	0.2104traffic	0.0901traffic	FanDuel -114 avg 1 books
09	Brandon PfaadtAZ	AZ vs STLneutral	P 43.6 F 41.2 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 15.5	56.4%Under prob · Palantir	55.9%no-vig	+21.42%	16.95count	5.65leash	22.213volume	0.1823traffic	0.0566traffic	FanDuel 112 avg 1 books