Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-09-02 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-02

Trevor Rogers

BAL · SP · throws L · age 29
Projected starter Opp K 26.1% Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBAL vs COLopponent
Sample657.667career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 9 rows
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts5.5
P 36.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 36.5% Market -- Gap +8.5pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs17.5
P 50.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 50.4% Market 58.0% Gap +3.8pp
FanDuel -138 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
65
ERA4.30
42
BB%6.1%
89 +22 vs proj
K%21.2%
44
xwOBA allowed0.304
61 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.2%
54 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo93.7
36
Hard-hit allowed39.4%
42
Whiff%21.5%
40

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range17.1% to 25.6%
Opponent K26.1%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)