Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-11

Matthew Liberatore

STL · SP · throws L · age 27
Projected starter Opp K 23.4% Neutral
MatchupSTL vs CWSopponent
Sample473.0career MLB IP
PROPS 1 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 16 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts5.5
P 20.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.2% Market -- Gap +27.7pp
DraftKings -103 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs--
Pitcher Outs · tracking

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
26
ERA5.57
16
BB%8.0%
63 -16 vs proj
K%23.8%
62 +36 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.337
26
Barrel allowed9.0%
26
Fastball velo94.3
49
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
26
Whiff%22.6%
48 +24 vs proj
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Changeup Stuff+105
77
Curveball Stuff+102
51
Fastball Stuff+102
46
Mithrandir Stuff+103
54
Slider Stuff+103
64
Cutter Stuff+96
Small sample
Sinker Stuff+108
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range16.8% to 25.3%
Opponent K23.4%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)