Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-11

George Kirby

SEA · SP · throws R · age 28
Projected starter Opp K 24.1% Neutral
MatchupSEA vs ATHopponent
Sample797.0career MLB IP
PROPS 1 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 16 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts4.5
P 62.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.5% Market -- Gap +8.1pp
DraftKings -136 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs--
Pitcher Outs · tracking

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
41
ERA4.18
44
BB%5.6%
93
K%19.7%
34 -32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.310
53
Barrel allowed6.9%
58 +22 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
84
Hard-hit allowed41.4%
30
Whiff%20.7%
33 -21 vs proj
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Fastball Stuff+107
82
Mithrandir Stuff+107
93
Sinker Stuff+108
90
Slider Stuff+109
94
Changeup Stuff+103
Small sample
Curveball Stuff+103
Small sample
Cutter Stuff+102
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range19.7% to 32.3%
Opponent K24.1%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)