Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-07-18

Spencer Arrighetti

HOU · SP
Projected starter Opp K 23.0% Neutral
MatchupHOU vs BALopponent
Sample262.333career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 16 rows
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts5.5
P 44.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 44.3% Market -- Gap +12.0pp
FanDuel -148 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs15.5
P 50.0
F 48.2 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 50.0% Market 46.3% Gap +6.7pp
FanDuel 116 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
44
ERA4.50
37
BB%12.3%
16 -18 vs proj
K%22.7%
51
xwOBA allowed0.349
16
Barrel allowed8.2%
41
Fastball velo92.3
20
Hard-hit allowed31.5%
92
Whiff%23.3%
53
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Curveball Stuff+101
35
Fastball Stuff+104
67
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Changeup Stuff+95
Small sample
Cutter Stuff+113
Small sample
Sinker Stuff+105
Small sample
Slider Stuff+101
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range--
Opponent K23.0%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)