Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-09-02 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-02

Jacob Lopez

ATH · SP · throws L · age 28
Projected starter Opp K 21.8% Neutral
MatchupATH vs TEXopponent
Sample214.333career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 9 rows
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts5.5
P 33.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 33.7% Market -- Gap +18.2pp
FanDuel -122 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs16.5
P 49.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.1% Market 49.5% Gap +3.1pp
FanDuel 102 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.54
17
ERA4.71
32
BB%11.8%
20 -37 vs proj
K%21.7%
46 -23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.286
79 +33 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.7%
78 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo90.3
4
Hard-hit allowed30.4%
94
Whiff%23.2%
53

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range19.6% to 29.5%
Opponent K21.8%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)