Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-07-18

Brandon Pfaadt

AZ · SP · throws R · age 28
Projected starter Opp K 21.6% Neutral
MatchupAZ vs STLopponent
Sample508.0career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 16 rows
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts3.5
P 65.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.8% Market -- Gap +12.9pp
FanDuel -128 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs15.5
P 43.6
F 41.2 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 43.6% Market 47.2% Gap +0.5pp
FanDuel 112 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
68
ERA4.70
32
BB%7.3%
71 -16 vs proj
K%19.0%
27 -17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.325
39
Barrel allowed9.5%
25
Fastball velo93.3
29
Hard-hit allowed38.0%
56
Whiff%21.0%
33
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Changeup Stuff+104
Small sample
Curveball Stuff+101
Small sample
Cutter Stuff+105
Small sample
Fastball Stuff+107
Small sample
Sinker Stuff+101
Small sample
Slider Stuff+97
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range17.9% to 27.9%
Opponent K21.6%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)