Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-01

Paul Skenes

PIT · SP
Projected starter Opp K 23.6% Neutral
MatchupPIT vs SFopponent
Sample465.667career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 15 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts6.5
P 39.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 39.8% Market -- Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 118 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs16.5
P 50.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 50.1% Market 56.5% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel -130 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
77
ERA3.95
53
BB%7.2%
75
K%29.4%
92
xwOBA allowed0.275
86
Barrel allowed7.4%
51
Fastball velo96.8
84
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
47
Whiff%25.8%
73
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Changeup Stuff+98
21
Fastball Stuff+104
62
Mithrandir Stuff+104
72
Sinker Stuff+107
91
Slider Stuff+104
69
Curveball Stuff+102
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range--
Opponent K23.6%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)