Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-01

Michael McGreevy

STL · SP · throws R · age 26
Projected starter Opp K 21.6% Neutral
MatchupSTL vs LADopponent
Sample261.0career MLB IP
PROPS 1 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 16 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts3.5
P 37.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 37.7% Market -- Gap +9.3pp
DraftKings 101 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs--
Pitcher Outs · tracking

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
65
ERA3.54
64
BB%6.3%
86
K%17.1%
14
xwOBA allowed0.353
13
Barrel allowed10.0%
16
Fastball velo91.3
8
Hard-hit allowed41.7%
27
Whiff%17.0%
9
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Changeup Stuff+100
34
Fastball Stuff+105
73
Mithrandir Stuff+102
44
Sinker Stuff+99
25
Slider Stuff+100
38
Curveball Stuff+102
Small sample
Cutter Stuff+101
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range11.3% to 21.2%
Opponent K21.6%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)