Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-01

Aj Smith-Shawver

ATL · SP · throws R · age 24
Projected starter Opp K 20.9% Neutral
MatchupATL vs WSHopponent
Sample87.667career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 5 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts4.5
P 34.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 34.9% Market -- Gap +8.4pp
FanDuel 118 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs15.5
P 49.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.0% Market 42.4% Gap +9.7pp
FanDuel 136 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Curveball Stuff+99
Small sample
Fastball Stuff+104
Small sample
Mithrandir Stuff+104
Small sample
Sinker Stuff+110
Small sample
Slider Stuff+94
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range16.9% to 28.0%
Opponent K20.9%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)