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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-05-04 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-05-04
55 matched props 18 unmatched
Newer: 2026-05-07 Older: 2026-04-30

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 55
Grouped Pitchers 15
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 18
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-05-04 | Raw sportsbook rows: 55 | Grouped pitcher entries: 15 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-05-04/strikeout_edges_2026-05-04.json
Davis Martin headshot

Davis Martin
CWS vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.32
Strongest Gap Under +16.59%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -23.37% / Under gap +16.59%
Under +16.59%
DraftKings
5.5
O +115 / U -146
Over gap -18.66% / Under gap +12.80%
Under +12.80%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -146
Over gap -19.77% / Under gap +12.80%
Under +12.80%
Model O 27.9% | U 72.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.1
Cam Schlittler headshot

Cam Schlittler
NYY vs BAL | 4 books
Strong
Adj K 6.07
Strongest Gap Under +14.19%
Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
7.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -21.64% / Under gap +14.19%
Under +14.19%
FanDuel
6.5
O -152 / U +114
Over gap -20.13% / Under gap +13.08%
Under +13.08%
FanDuel
6.5
O -148 / U +112
Over gap -19.49% / Under gap +12.64%
Under +12.64%
DraftKings
7.5
O +119 / U -153
Over gap -17.30% / Under gap +11.17%
Under +11.17%
Model O 28.4% | U 71.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.6
José Soriano headshot

José Soriano
LAA vs CWS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.74
Strongest Gap Under +12.65%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -119 / U -107
Over gap -18.68% / Under gap +12.65%
Under +12.65%
BetMGM
6.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -16.72% / Under gap +9.79%
Under +9.79%
FanDuel
6.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -16.72% / Under gap +9.79%
Under +9.79%
Model O 35.7% | U 64.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.5
Randy Vásquez headshot

Randy Vásquez
SD vs SF | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.28
Strongest Gap Under +11.91%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -143 / U +112
Over gap -17.93% / Under gap +11.91%
Under +11.91%
FanDuel
3.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -16.71% / Under gap +9.58%
Under +9.58%
BetMGM
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -13.63% / Under gap +6.70%
Under +6.70%
Model O 40.9% | U 59.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.4
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs NYY | 4 books
Strong
Adj K 4.88
Strongest Gap Under +8.99%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -15.92% / Under gap +8.99%
Under +8.99%
FanDuel
5.5
O -106 / U -125
Over gap -15.00% / Under gap +7.98%
Under +7.98%
FanDuel
5.5
O -106 / U -125
Over gap -15.00% / Under gap +7.98%
Under +7.98%
DraftKings
5.5
O +101 / U -128
Over gap -13.29% / Under gap +7.40%
Under +7.40%
Model O 36.5% | U 63.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.8
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs HOU | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.64
Strongest Gap Under +8.28%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -172 / U +128
Over gap -15.38% / Under gap +8.28%
Under +8.28%
BetMGM
6.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -15.72% / Under gap +8.27%
Under +8.27%
DraftKings
6.5
O +114 / U -145
Over gap -12.45% / Under gap +6.54%
Under +6.54%
Model O 47.9% | U 52.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.5
Eric Lauer headshot

Eric Lauer
TOR vs TB | 4 books
Strong
Adj K 4.02
Strongest Gap Over +6.55%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +107 / U -137
Over gap +6.55% / Under gap -12.67%
Over +6.55%
FanDuel
3.5
O +102 / U -136
Over gap +5.36% / Under gap -12.49%
Over +5.36%
FanDuel
3.5
O +102 / U -136
Over gap +5.36% / Under gap -12.49%
Over +5.36%
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +3.64% / Under gap -10.42%
Over +3.64%
Model O 54.9% | U 45.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.7
Janson Junk headshot

Janson Junk
MIA vs PHI | 4 books
Play
Adj K 3.58
Strongest Gap Under +3.69%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -129 / U +102
Over gap -9.52% / Under gap +3.69%
Under +3.69%
FanDuel
3.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -10.82% / Under gap +3.69%
Under +3.69%
FanDuel
3.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -10.82% / Under gap +3.69%
Under +3.69%
BetMGM
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -7.74% / Under gap +0.81%
No Play
Model O 46.8% | U 53.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.1
Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee
CLE vs KC | 4 books
Lean
Adj K 4.72
Strongest Gap Over +2.91%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap +2.91% / Under gap -9.84%
Over +2.91%
FanDuel
4.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap +2.91% / Under gap -9.84%
Over +2.91%
DraftKings
4.5
O +107 / U -136
Over gap +0.90% / Under gap -6.84%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -2.01% / Under gap -4.77%
No Play
Model O 49.2% | U 50.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.0
Edward Cabrera headshot

Edward Cabrera
CHC vs CIN | 4 books
Lean
Adj K 5.41
Strongest Gap Under +2.02%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -8.12% / Under gap +2.02%
Under +2.02%
FanDuel
5.5
O -112 / U -118
Over gap -8.34% / Under gap +1.38%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -112 / U -118
Over gap -8.34% / Under gap +1.38%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -6.73% / Under gap -0.05%
No Play
Model O 44.5% | U 55.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.3
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs CLE | 4 books
No Play
Adj K 4.55
Strongest Gap No Play +0.98%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap +0.98% / Under gap -7.97%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap +0.98% / Under gap -7.97%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +117 / U -150
Over gap +0.35% / Under gap -6.43%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -3.57% / Under gap -3.88%
No Play
Model O 46.4% | U 53.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.6
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs TOR | 4 books
No Play
Adj K 3.86
Strongest Gap No Play +0.36%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -7.98% / Under gap +0.36%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -133 / U +104
Over gap -5.06% / Under gap -1.04%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -5.61% / Under gap -1.52%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -5.61% / Under gap -1.52%
No Play
Model O 52.0% | U 48.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.1
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs ATL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 6.32
Strongest Gap No Play -0.26%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -0.26% / Under gap -7.19%
No Play
DraftKings
6.5
O +105 / U -134
Over gap -5.20% / Under gap -0.84%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -172 / U +128
Over gap -6.05% / Under gap -1.05%
No Play
Model O 57.2% | U 42.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.9
Chad Patrick headshot

Chad Patrick
MIL vs STL | 4 books
No Play
Adj K 4.24
Strongest Gap No Play -0.61%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -145 / U +114
Over gap -0.61% / Under gap -5.30%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -2.97% / Under gap -4.02%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -2.97% / Under gap -4.02%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -2.97% / Under gap -4.02%
No Play
Model O 58.6% | U 41.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.0
Aaron Nola headshot

Aaron Nola
PHI vs MIA | 4 books
No Play
Adj K 5.42
Strongest Gap No Play -1.66%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -1.66% / Under gap -5.27%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -1.66% / Under gap -5.27%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -2.98% / Under gap -2.97%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -2.98% / Under gap -4.64%
No Play
Model O 44.6% | U 55.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.8

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.