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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-06-01 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-06-01
67 matched props 43 unmatched
Older: 2026-05-31

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 67
Grouped Pitchers 11
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 43
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25 2026-05-24

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-06-01 | Raw sportsbook rows: 67 | Grouped pitcher entries: 11 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-06-01/strikeout_edges_2026-06-01.json
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs MIA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 3.84
Strongest Gap Under +23.31%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -101 / U -127
Over gap -29.51% / Under gap +23.31%
Under +23.31%
FanDuel
5.5
O +106 / U -130
Over gap -27.80% / Under gap +22.74%
Under +22.74%
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -28.76% / Under gap +22.74%
Under +22.74%
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -28.04% / Under gap +20.93%
Under +20.93%
FanDuel
7.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -11.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -19.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -26.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -35.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -36.36% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.7% | U 79.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.4
Landen Roupp headshot

Landen Roupp
SF vs MIL | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 4.22
Strongest Gap Under +23.17%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -130 / U -102
Over gap -30.19% / Under gap +23.17%
Under +23.17%
FanDuel
5.5
O -130 / U -102
Over gap -30.19% / Under gap +23.17%
Under +23.17%
BetMGM
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -28.22% / Under gap +21.29%
Under +21.29%
DraftKings
5.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -26.28% / Under gap +20.18%
Under +20.18%
FanDuel
8.5
O +700 / U --
Over gap -7.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap -13.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap -21.58% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -21.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -31.75% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -34.76% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.3% | U 73.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.8
Kyle Freeland headshot

Kyle Freeland
COL vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.93
Strongest Gap Under +20.33%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -158 / U +128
Over gap -25.43% / Under gap +20.33%
Under +20.33%
DraftKings
4.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -25.13% / Under gap +19.14%
Under +19.14%
BetMGM
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -24.97% / Under gap +17.68%
Under +17.68%
Model O 35.8% | U 64.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.6
José Soriano headshot

José Soriano
LAA vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.12
Strongest Gap Under +16.03%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -162 / U +132
Over gap -20.96% / Under gap +16.03%
Under +16.03%
BetMGM
6.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -19.91% / Under gap +12.62%
Under +12.62%
DraftKings
7.5
O +111 / U -142
Over gap -18.42% / Under gap +12.35%
Under +12.35%
Model O 40.9% | U 59.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.6
Emerson Hancock headshot

Emerson Hancock
SEA vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.09
Strongest Gap Under +15.73%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -153 / U +119
Over gap -21.86% / Under gap +15.73%
Under +15.73%
FanDuel
4.5
O -144 / U +118
Over gap -20.41% / Under gap +15.52%
Under +15.52%
BetMGM
5.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap -20.05% / Under gap +13.35%
Under +13.35%
Model O 38.6% | U 61.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 18.0
Emmet Sheehan headshot

Emmet Sheehan
LAD vs AZ | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.73
Strongest Gap Under +10.91%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +100 / U -122
Over gap -15.86% / Under gap +10.91%
Under +10.91%
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -17.08% / Under gap +10.30%
Under +10.30%
DraftKings
5.5
O -101 / U -126
Over gap -16.11% / Under gap +10.11%
Under +10.11%
Model O 34.1% | U 65.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.3
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs WSH | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.75
Strongest Gap Over +10.64%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +10.64% / Under gap --
Over +10.64%
FanDuel
4.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap +10.32% / Under gap --
Over +10.32%
FanDuel
6.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +9.42% / Under gap --
Over +9.42%
FanDuel
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap +4.79% / Under gap -11.78%
Over +4.79%
FanDuel
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap +4.79% / Under gap -11.78%
Over +4.79%
DraftKings
3.5
O -161 / U +126
Over gap +4.64% / Under gap -10.58%
Over +4.64%
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap +4.24% / Under gap -11.23%
Over +4.24%
FanDuel
2.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap +0.14% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.4% | U 65.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.8
Jacob deGrom headshot

Jacob deGrom
TEX vs STL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.54
Strongest Gap Under +8.08%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +118 / U -144
Over gap -12.97% / Under gap +8.08%
Under +8.08%
FanDuel
6.5
O +108 / U -144
Over gap -15.18% / Under gap +8.08%
Under +8.08%
BetMGM
5.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -14.37% / Under gap +7.08%
Under +7.08%
DraftKings
6.5
O +119 / U -152
Over gap -12.76% / Under gap +6.78%
Under +6.78%
FanDuel
8.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -4.27% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -8.79% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -16.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -200 / U --
Over gap -20.26% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -450 / U --
Over gap -20.41% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 32.9% | U 67.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 74.4
Michael McGreevy headshot

Michael McGreevy
STL vs TEX | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.25
Strongest Gap Under +7.31%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -110 / U -110
Over gap -12.07% / Under gap +7.31%
Under +7.31%
FanDuel
3.5
O -110 / U -110
Over gap -12.07% / Under gap +7.31%
Under +7.31%
DraftKings
3.5
O -116 / U -110
Over gap -13.39% / Under gap +7.31%
Under +7.31%
BetMGM
3.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -9.69% / Under gap +2.24%
Under +2.24%
FanDuel
5.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -5.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +205 / U --
Over gap -8.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -14.91% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.3% | U 59.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.2
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs LAD | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.56
Strongest Gap Over +4.40%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap +4.40% / Under gap -12.36%
Over +4.40%
FanDuel
3.5
O -152 / U +124
Over gap +3.26% / Under gap -8.22%
Over +3.26%
DraftKings
3.5
O -152 / U +119
Over gap +3.26% / Under gap -9.24%
Over +3.26%
Model O 63.6% | U 36.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.9
Joe Ryan headshot

Joe Ryan
MIN vs CWS | 9 books
Play
Adj K 6.03
Strongest Gap Over +3.22%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +550 / U --
Over gap +3.22% / Under gap --
Over +3.22%
FanDuel
5.5
O -158 / U +130
Over gap -7.90% / Under gap +3.18%
Under +3.18%
FanDuel
5.5
O -158 / U +130
Over gap -7.90% / Under gap +3.18%
Under +3.18%
DraftKings
5.5
O -163 / U +126
Over gap -8.64% / Under gap +2.41%
Under +2.41%
FanDuel
7.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap +1.54% / Under gap --
Over +1.54%
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -6.66% / Under gap -0.96%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -3.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -12.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -12.65% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.6% | U 81.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.7

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.