Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-01 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-01

57 matched props 22 unmatched

Older: 2026-08-31

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 57

Grouped Pitchers 19

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 22

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27 2026-08-26 2026-08-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-01 | Raw sportsbook rows: 57 | Grouped pitcher entries: 19 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-01/strikeout_edges_2026-09-01.json

Sean Burke

CWS vs HOU | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.89

Strongest Gap Under +25.05%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -31.15% / Under gap +25.05%

Under +25.05%

BetMGM

5.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -32.03% / Under gap +25.05%

Under +25.05%

FanDuel

5.5

O +100 / U -128

Over gap -28.54% / Under gap +22.40%

Under +22.40%

Model O 21.5% | U 78.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.8

Kyle Bradish

BAL vs COL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.98

Strongest Gap Over +12.91%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -118 / U -108

Over gap +12.91% / Under gap -18.96%

Over +12.91%

DraftKings

4.5

O -132 / U +101

Over gap +10.14% / Under gap -16.79%

Over +10.14%

BetMGM

4.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap +8.71% / Under gap -15.82%

Over +8.71%

Model O 67.0% | U 33.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 81.8

Freddy Peralta

TB vs NYM | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.01

Strongest Gap Over +11.26%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap +11.26% / Under gap -17.40%

Over +11.26%

FanDuel

4.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap +11.26% / Under gap -17.40%

Over +11.26%

BetMGM

4.5

O -145 / U +105

Over gap +8.22% / Under gap -16.18%

Over +8.22%

Model O 67.4% | U 32.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.6

Nick Lodolo

CIN vs SD | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.26

Strongest Gap Over +9.87%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +110 / U -140

Over gap +9.87% / Under gap -15.82%

Over +9.87%

DraftKings

4.5

O +101 / U -129

Over gap +7.74% / Under gap -13.82%

Over +7.74%

BetMGM

4.5

O -110 / U -120

Over gap +5.11% / Under gap -12.04%

Over +5.11%

Model O 57.5% | U 42.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.2

Ronel Blanco

HOU vs CWS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.16

Strongest Gap Over +6.52%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap +6.52% / Under gap -12.54%

Over +6.52%

DraftKings

4.5

O -108 / U -119

Over gap +4.10% / Under gap -10.36%

Over +4.10%

BetMGM

4.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap +2.53% / Under gap -9.51%

Over +2.53%

Model O 56.0% | U 44.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.1

Gavin Williams

CLE vs TOR | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.58

Strongest Gap Under +6.39%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O +118 / U -151

Over gap -12.42% / Under gap +6.39%

Under +6.39%

BetMGM

6.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -13.06% / Under gap +5.77%

Under +5.77%

FanDuel

6.5

O +122 / U -156

Over gap -11.60% / Under gap +5.61%

Under +5.61%

Model O 33.5% | U 66.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.6

Michael McGreevy

STL vs LAD | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.12

Strongest Gap Under +6.18%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O +101 / U -128

Over gap -12.07% / Under gap +6.18%

Under +6.18%

FanDuel

3.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap -10.86% / Under gap +4.69%

Under +4.69%

BetMGM

3.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -8.83% / Under gap +1.54%

Under +1.54%

Model O 37.7% | U 62.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 19.0

Aj Smith-Shawver

ATL vs WSH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.88

Strongest Gap Under +5.72%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +113 / U -146

Over gap -12.02% / Under gap +5.72%

Under +5.72%

FanDuel

4.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap -10.94% / Under gap +5.07%

Under +5.07%

BetMGM

3.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -7.62% / Under gap +0.00%

No Play

Model O 34.9% | U 65.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.2

Eric Lauer

LAD vs STL | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.38

Strongest Gap Over +4.30%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -130 / U -105

Over gap +4.30% / Under gap -12.04%

Over +4.30%

FanDuel

3.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap +2.14% / Under gap -7.99%

Over +2.14%

DraftKings

3.5

O -160 / U +126

Over gap -0.72% / Under gap -5.07%

No Play

Model O 60.8% | U 39.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.1

Matthew Boyd

CHC vs MIL | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.89

Strongest Gap Over +4.29%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +110 / U -140

Over gap +4.29% / Under gap -10.24%

Over +4.29%

BetMGM

4.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap +3.13% / Under gap -10.24%

Over +3.13%

FanDuel

4.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap +0.93% / Under gap -6.86%

No Play

Model O 51.9% | U 48.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.1

MacKenzie Gore

TEX vs ATH | 3 books

Play

Adj K 6.26

Strongest Gap Under +3.74%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -10.72% / Under gap +3.74%

Under +3.74%

DraftKings

6.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap -6.73% / Under gap +0.71%

No Play

FanDuel

6.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap -6.73% / Under gap +0.71%

No Play

Model O 42.8% | U 57.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.9

Paul Skenes

PIT vs SF | 3 books

Play

Adj K 6.04

Strongest Gap Under +3.14%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O +104 / U -133

Over gap -9.24% / Under gap +3.14%

Under +3.14%

BetMGM

6.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -9.00% / Under gap +1.89%

Under +1.89%

FanDuel

6.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap -6.09% / Under gap +0.22%

No Play

Model O 39.8% | U 60.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 78.4

Randy Vásquez

SD vs CIN | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 3.32

Strongest Gap Under +2.72%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -9.50% / Under gap +2.72%

Under +2.72%

FanDuel

3.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap -6.82% / Under gap +0.65%

No Play

DraftKings

3.5

O +113 / U -145

Over gap -5.23% / Under gap -0.90%

No Play

Model O 41.7% | U 58.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.8

Logan Webb

SF vs PIT | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 5.66

Strongest Gap Over +2.70%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap +2.70% / Under gap -9.69%

Over +2.70%

FanDuel

4.5

O -156 / U +122

Over gap +2.07% / Under gap -8.06%

Over +2.07%

DraftKings

4.5

O -160 / U +125

Over gap +1.47% / Under gap -7.45%

No Play

Model O 48.1% | U 51.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.3

Eduardo Rodriguez

AZ vs PHI | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.79

Strongest Gap Over +1.79%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap +1.79% / Under gap -7.96%

Over +1.79%

DraftKings

4.5

O +103 / U -131

Over gap +1.07% / Under gap -7.04%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -3.16% / Under gap -3.82%

No Play

Model O 50.3% | U 49.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.8

Jesús Luzardo

PHI vs AZ | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 5.88

Strongest Gap Under +1.63%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -8.92% / Under gap +1.63%

Under +1.63%

FanDuel

5.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap -7.41% / Under gap +1.56%

Under +1.56%

DraftKings

5.5

O -145 / U +111

Over gap -7.91% / Under gap +1.34%

No Play

Model O 37.6% | U 62.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.3

Jake Irvin

WSH vs ATL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.25

Strongest Gap No Play +0.82%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +106 / U -137

Over gap -7.17% / Under gap +0.82%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -7.41% / Under gap +0.30%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +120 / U -154

Over gap -4.08% / Under gap -2.00%

No Play

Model O 41.4% | U 58.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.7

Sean Manaea

NYM vs TB | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.91

Strongest Gap No Play +0.07%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -109 / U -117

Over gap +0.07% / Under gap -6.14%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -0.39% / Under gap -5.71%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -2.33% / Under gap -4.60%

No Play

Model O 52.2% | U 47.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.1

Bryan Woo

SEA vs BOS | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.15

Strongest Gap No Play -1.32%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap -5.67% / Under gap -1.32%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O +121 / U -160

Over gap -4.66% / Under gap -2.13%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O +130 / U -166

Over gap -2.89% / Under gap -3.00%

No Play

Model O 55.9% | U 44.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.1

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.